Returning Ahn Cheol-soo, Will the Centrist and Reformist 'Third Zone Big Tent' Get Started?

Break with Yoo Seung-min Faction's New Conservative Party
Likely Return to Frontline via Bareunmirae
Son Leader Also Promises Step Back if Returning
21st General Election as Variable in Opposition Political Realignment
Concerns Over Criticism of Reverting to People's Party

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Chun-han] Former Bareunmirae Party lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo declared his return to politics on the 2nd, drawing political attention to the Bareunmirae Party. This is because Ahn's comeback is expected to be a significant variable in the Bareunmirae Party's direction following its recent split and in the reorganization of the opposition political landscape. In particular, since Ahn has effectively distanced himself from the New Conservative Party (Saebosu Party), attention is focused on whether the 'third zone big tent,' advocating centrism and reform, can gain momentum.

On the same day, Ahn stated on Facebook, "Over the past year abroad, I have taken time to reflect on my life and six years of political activity," adding, "Although the people have given me excessive love and great expectations, I have fallen short due to my shortcomings. However, I can firmly say that my original intention that 'politics is a service for the nation's future' has not changed."

Ahn said, "I deeply considered whether it is right to start politics again," and "If the people have called and guided me to the path of politics, now I want to move forward toward the future together with the people." He continued, "I will now return and discuss how to change politics and how the Republic of Korea should move toward the future," adding, "Even if it is a lonely path, I will walk the path while cherishing the hearts of the people who called me."

Ahn withdrew from frontline politics after losing the June 13, 2018 local elections. In September of the same year, he went to study in Germany, and in October last year, he moved to the United States to work as a visiting scholar at Stanford University. Despite repeated requests to return amid the severe factional conflicts within the Bareunmirae Party, Ahn did not respond.

Recently, despite continuous love calls from Yoo Seung-min's faction, Ahn did not join the Saebosu Party. Kim Do-sik, Ahn's secretary chief, sent a text message to reporters on the 13th of last month, stating, "Regarding the new party for change and innovation, former leader Ahn has clearly expressed his intention not to participate as the conditions are not met, so we have no interest regardless of the party name." While Yoo Seung-min's faction has claimed to be reform conservatives, Ahn's faction has advocated rational centrism.

Ultimately, a return to frontline politics through the Bareunmirae Party is strongly discussed. In this case, Ahn's top priority will be to seize party leadership and rebuild the party. Earlier, Bareunmirae Party leader Sohn Hak-kyu declared that he would step back to a secondary role if Ahn returned. Of course, the possibility of Ahn forming an independent new party cannot be ruled out. However, leading opposition unification solely with Ahn's faction carries significant risks. It is expected that, in any case, opposition unification with parties such as the Alternative Party and the Party for Democracy and Peace, forming the so-called 'third zone big tent,' will be pursued. If unification occurs, it is likely to have a considerable impact on the seat distribution in the 21st National Assembly.

In fact, the People's Party, where Ahn was the major shareholder, won 25% of the party vote in the last general election, more than the Democratic Party of Korea, securing 38 seats in the National Assembly. However, criticism of being a 'rebranded People's Party' could be a burden for Ahn. With Yoo Seung-min's faction all leaving for the Saebosu Party, the personnel composition of the third zone remains almost unchanged from the People's Party era.

Electoral system reform is another variable in unification. Since the mixed-member proportional representation system, applied from this general election, favors small parties, there is analysis that parties must run separately rather than unify to secure a majority of seats. Therefore, there is also a possibility of first forming an electoral alliance, followed by unification.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.