[Interview] Former Ambassador Song Geum-young "North Korea Nuclear Issue Resolution Unlikely This Year"

'Ukrainian-style solution' no longer effective amid complicated calculations in the international community

International cooperation and UN economic sanctions expected to bring North Korea to the negotiation table

▲Former Ambassador Song Geum-young

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jaehee] North Korea has hinted at the possibility of resuming nuclear and ICBM tests, putting a brake on existing strategies toward the North. While the past 'Ukrainian-style solution' once emerged as a clue to the North Korean nuclear issue, it is now pointed out that it is no longer effective as the calculations of North Korea and surrounding countries have become more complicated.

Song Geum-young, former ambassador who passed the 24th Foreign Service Examination in 1990 and joined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, working on CIS affairs in Russia and other former Soviet states after the end of the US-Soviet Cold War, predicted, "It will not be easy to lead North Korea to denuclearization." Song is recognized as an expert on international affairs surrounding the Korean Peninsula, including Russia.

Song evaluated that "the solution to the North Korean nuclear issue has become more complicated," adding, "The only way to bring North Korea to the negotiation table is the trilateral cooperation system among the US, China, and Russia, along with UN economic sanctions."

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine, which possessed 1,900 nuclear warheads, agreed over several years of negotiations with the US and Russia to voluntarily transfer its nuclear weapons to Russia. In this process, Ukraine demanded non-aggression guarantees over its territory and economic aid in exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons. These conditions were similar to those North Korea proposed in the North Korea-US-China trilateral talks, leading the 'Ukrainian-style solution' to emerge as an alternative.

However, Song predicted that the Ukrainian-style solution would no longer be valid. He said, "In Ukraine's case, there was a common interest between the US and Russia, which made mutual cooperation possible. But today, due to the hegemonic competition between the US and China, cooperation between the two countries is difficult. Rather, North Korea has likely learned from the past cases of Ukraine and Libya that 'possessing nuclear weapons' is the only solution."

In the past, despite Ukraine receiving security guarantees from Russia as a condition for giving up nuclear weapons, Russia forcibly annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Libya also declared the dismantlement of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear development, in 2003 and was praised by the international community, but later, Muammar Gaddafi met a tragic end at the hands of rebels supported by Western countries.

Song explained, "Through these cases, North Korea has likely realized that only by possessing nuclear weapons can it avoid becoming a 'paper tiger.' For North Korea, nuclear weapons are not only a tool to strengthen political security guarantees but also important for laying an economic foundation."

He added, "Asking North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons and come out to the international community is tantamount to saying that dialogue will not take place."

Song also pointed out that the complicated calculations among surrounding countries make mutual cooperation difficult, further complicating the North Korean nuclear issue.

He said, "In the case of Ukraine's denuclearization, the unanimous stance and active cooperation system among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council played a decisive role. However, China and Russia have already demanded the easing of UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea, and in light of this, even if North Korea launches missiles, it is highly likely that there will be no support for additional UN Security Council sanctions."

Profile of Former Ambassador Song Geum-young

- Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and Diplomacy, Dong-A University; Master’s degree in Political Science and Diplomacy, same university

- Passed the 24th Foreign Service Examination in 1990

- After the end of the US-Soviet Cold War in the early 1990s, served as secretary in Russia and later as head of the CIS division. Worked mainly on Russia and CIS affairs for 28 years.

- Subsequently served at embassies in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Ireland, and the Consulate General in Los Angeles, USA

- Retired in 2018 as Ambassador to Tanzania

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.