[New York Stock Market] Trump Rejects Iran Proposal... All Indexes Start Lower

Nasdaq Sees Fierce Volatility
International Oil Prices on the Rise

International oil prices rose on reports that U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal, leading all three major U.S. stock indexes to start lower on May 11 (local time). While the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rebounded, the Nasdaq continued to fluctuate fiercely around the 26,200 mark.

According to the home trading system (HTS), as of 9:58 a.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was up 85.92 points (0.17%) from the previous trading day, standing at 49,695.08. The S&P 500 index, which focuses on large-cap stocks, rose 10.27 points (0.13%) to 7,409.20, while the tech-focused Nasdaq index fell 35.11 points (0.13%) to 26,211.96.

The previous day, Iran delivered a proposal to the U.S. negotiating team calling for a ceasefire across all fronts in the Middle East and the lifting of sanctions on Iran. In response, President Trump stated on Truth Social that he did not like Iran’s response, declaring, “Absolutely unacceptable.”

Regarding why stock prices are not falling more sharply despite the uncertainty of the Iran war, Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, analyzed, “The market still believes that a ceasefire agreement will be reached.”

Market participants expect the New York stock market to remain resilient despite the uncertainties. Rick Rieder, Global Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at BlackRock, said, “The Iran war and the resulting oil price shock may slow economic growth somewhat compared to before,” but added, “However, much larger structural factors will keep the overall economy in a much better state than many people expect.”

This comes after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose more than 2% and 4% last week, according to CNBC. Both indexes have logged six consecutive weeks of gains—the first time since 2024.

First-quarter corporate earnings also provided support for the market's lower bound. According to Bloomberg, several Wall Street strategists have raised their annual targets for the S&P 500. CFRA raised its target from 7,400 to 7,730 points, citing strong consumer spending and increased investment in AI. Yardeni Research expects the S&P 500 to finish the year between 7,700 and 8,250 points.

Oil and energy stocks, including ExxonMobil (up 1.53%), Chevron (up 1.29%), Occidental Petroleum (up 3.19%), and Diamondback Energy (up 1.55%), are all on the rise. In contrast, Delta Air Lines (down 2.28%), American Airlines (down 2.99%), and United Airlines (down 2.69%) are falling.

At this moment, June delivery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading at $96.22 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.83% from the previous session. July delivery Brent crude oil on the ICE Futures Exchange is trading at $102.96 per barrel, up 1.63% from the previous session.

On this day, Morgan Stanley warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until June, oil prices could spike. The report stated, “Our base scenario is that the strait will reopen within June, with some buffer capacity still remaining for the U.S. and China. However, if the closure continues until the end of June or into July, Brent spot prices could face the sharp corrections that have been avoided until now.”

According to the report, the U.S. recently expanded its crude oil exports by about 3.8 million barrels per day, while China reduced its daily imports by about 5.5 million barrels. This allowed the global market to absorb a supply shock of about 9.3 million barrels per day. However, the report notes that this buffer is not permanent.

The report also analyzed, “Even if the strait reopens tomorrow, it will take time to restore production facilities and normalize transportation, so the market could suffer an additional supply loss of about 1 billion barrels for the remainder of 2026.”

Sarah Hunt, Chief Market Strategist at Alpine Saxon Woods, emphasized, “The biggest concern is that there has been a buffer for energy prices, but there is debate about when that buffer will be exhausted. There are discussions on when prices will bottom out and when this will become a real problem.”