[War & Business] Iran’s Mosaic Defense System Baffles the United States

Iran’s Decentralized Command Structure Prepared for War
Air Defense Network Remains Intact Despite Collapse of Top Leadership

The F-15 fighter jet, once hailed as the “king of the skies” during the Gulf War and renowned for its effectiveness in ground attacks, has been shot down over Iranian airspace. Since the outbreak of the war, U.S. President Donald Trump has boasted at every press conference about the success in neutralizing Iran’s air defense systems, frequently declaring that “Iran has nothing left.” However, this incident, in which a mainstay fighter was lost, seems to mock those claims.

The U.S. military initially assessed that Iran’s command structure had effectively collapsed after Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, was killed in an explosion and dozens of senior leaders died at the outset of the conflict. In fact, the number of ballistic missiles launched by Iran, which reached up to 3,500 rounds per day immediately after the war began, has recently dropped to below 500, making it appear as if Iran’s air defense capability had been diminished.

However, it was only the number of launches that had decreased. Iran’s air defense network continues to inflict damage by shooting down and destroying major U.S. military assets. An F-35 fighter jet was hit for the first time and was forced to make an emergency landing. Twelve MQ-9 Reaper drones have been shot down, and an E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft stationed at a Saudi Arabian airbase was destroyed.

Analysts attribute these unexpected losses for the U.S. military to an underestimation of Iran’s “Mosaic Defense” system. The Mosaic Defense is a decentralized command structure in which regional commands operate autonomously. Much like a mosaic pattern made up of individual tiles, each regional command acts independently. While this system has the drawback of somewhat weaker central control, it offers the advantage that, even if the central command collapses in an emergency, regional commands can continue fighting according to their own manuals.

Experts note that this Mosaic Defense system is what enables Iran’s military to keep shooting down U.S. jets even after the collapse of its top leadership. According to Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern media outlet, Iran has studied this Mosaic Defense doctrine for decades, inspired by North Vietnam’s use of the strategy against U.S. forces during the Vietnam War in 1975, and has repeatedly trained for emergencies based on this doctrine.

Under the Mosaic Defense system, if Iran’s supreme leader and military leadership are incapacitated, the country’s 31 regional commands take full control over their subordinate units, and if a regional headquarters is destroyed, the subordinate units operate independently according to their own manuals. This approach forces adversaries into a prolonged conflict, countering with ballistic missiles and drones until the enemy is exhausted. If ground forces invade, the defense system calls for guerrilla warfare, fighting to the last person.

Iran’s political system, not just its military command structure, is also designed to resemble the Mosaic Defense. The “Supreme Leader” is formally the head of state but, as a cleric, minimizes direct involvement in state affairs. In practice, the president and executive branch handle governance. The Supreme Leader serves as the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), while the president is the commander-in-chief of the regular Iranian military. If both the Supreme Leader and president were to die suddenly, Iran’s National Security Committee in parliament would immediately assume military command. In essence, the nation’s entire operational system is designed with long-term conflict against a powerful adversary in mind.

The Trump Administration has overlooked Iran’s structural advantages for prolonged warfare and, relying solely on conventional military superiority, is now facing serious setbacks. With its advance stalled by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. has no choice but to anxiously hope that Iran will soon come to the negotiating table.

Even if, as President Trump has said, the U.S. unleashes a massive assault over the next two to three weeks to “send Iran back to the Stone Age,” it will be difficult to dismantle the entire Mosaic Defense system. The rugged mountains of Iran and its vast territory—7.5 times the size of the Korean Peninsula—make it nearly impossible to lay waste to the country, especially with the U.S. midterm elections in November fast approaching.