The Job That Will Grow the Most in 10 Years: Game Programmer... Which Job Will Decline the Most?

Korea Employment Information Service '2021 Job Information in Korea'
Survey on Jobs Increasing or Decreasing in 10 Years
Human Element Crucial... Promising Jobs Not Replaceable by Machines

People believe that the profession with the most job growth in 10 years will be game programmers. On the other hand, there are occupations expected to decline in number. University professors were ranked as the 'number 3' occupation most likely to decrease.

The Korea Employment Information Service recently published the '2021 Korea Occupational Information (KNOW·Korea Network For Occupations and Workers)' report. This report surveys over 10,000 people on job satisfaction by occupation, employment outlook, and is published annually. The report also includes a survey on which occupations are expected to have the most job growth and the most job decline in 10 years.

The Employment Information Service conducted the job change survey using a 5-point Likert scale. The Likert scale measures the degree of agreement with a question in five stages. The lowest score, 1 point, means 'significantly decreases,' and the highest score, 5 points, means 'significantly increases.' The lower the score for an occupation, the more respondents believed that the job is likely to disappear.

The occupation expected to have the most job growth in 10 years was game programmers, with an average score of 3.5 out of 5. The increase response rate was 70%. Next were delivery workers (3.7 points, 66.7%), soil technicians and researchers (3.4 points, 60%), and social welfare managers (3.5 points, 50%). These results reflect social changes such as the development of information technology (IT), worsening environmental pollution, and increased welfare demand due to longer average lifespans.

Surprisingly, some occupations also showed a bright outlook. Jobs that are difficult to replace with machines and involve sharing humanity between people are expected to increase. For example, kimchi and side dish makers scored an average of 2.8 points with a 44.4% increase response rate, ranking 6th among jobs expected to grow. Comedians and comedians scored an average of 3.3 points with a 33.3% increase response rate, ranking 9th. Notably, comedians recorded a 100% 'irreplaceable' response rate, meaning respondents judged that their work cannot be replaced by machines.

The top three occupations expected to see the largest job decreases were fish farmers, loom and knitting machine operators, and university professors. University professors, considered high-income professionals, and some medical specialties such as obstetricians and pediatricians were also expected to see job declines in 10 years. University professors scored an average of 1.1 points out of 5, with a decrease response rate of 92.9%. Obstetricians scored 1.4 points with an 81.5% decrease response rate, ranking 16th among jobs expected to decline. Pediatricians scored 1.4 points with a 78.6% decrease response rate, ranking 25th.

Both professors and doctors are expected to see job declines due to decreasing birth rates. According to Statistics Korea, last year's total fertility rate in Korea was a record low annual figure of 0.78. The total fertility rate for the second quarter of this year was a record low quarterly figure of 0.7. The total fertility rate refers to the expected number of children a woman of childbearing age will have in her lifetime.

Beyond individual occupations, job outlook results for 10 occupational groups were also presented. Among the 10 major occupational categories?management, research, education, health, arts, beauty, sales, construction, installation, and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries?the 'installation, maintenance, and production' group was selected as the occupational group expected to see the largest job decrease in 10 years. Among 2,203 respondents working in installation, maintenance, and production, 55.7% answered that jobs would decrease. Next, the sales, retail, driving, and transportation group had a high decrease response rate, with 52.8% of 793 respondents expecting job declines. Following that was the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries group, with 50% of 272 respondents expecting job decreases.

The occupational group with the lowest job decrease outlook was health and medical occupations. Only 26.4% of 594 respondents in this group said jobs would decrease in the future. This reflects the increasing demand for medical services due to aging. This rate was about half that of installation, maintenance, and production workers (55.7%) who expected job decreases. Next were research and engineering technical occupations, with 28.5% of 2,121 respondents expecting job declines. Following were arts, design, broadcasting, and sports occupations, with 29.3% of 1,223 respondents expecting job decreases.

The more an occupational group is susceptible to replacement by machines, the higher the likelihood of job decreases. A survey on how much human tasks in 10 major occupational categories could be replaced by machines or equipment within 5 years showed that the group with the lowest 'irreplaceable' response rate was installation, maintenance, and production, at 29.5%. This was followed by research and engineering technical occupations (29.8%), management, office, finance, and insurance occupations (31.9%), and sales, retail, driving, and transportation occupations (36.9%). Workers in these groups believe their jobs could be taken over by machines and artificial intelligence.

The occupational groups with the highest 'irreplaceable' response rates were health and medical occupations (52.5%), arts, design, broadcasting, and sports occupations (51.7%), and education, law, social welfare, police, firefighting, and military occupations (51.4%). In other words, a significant portion of installation, maintenance, and production work is expected to be replaced by machines, leading to the largest job decreases, while health and medical work is considered difficult to replace by machines.

Health and medical professionals with the highest 'irreplaceable' response rates?such as social welfare managers, life guidance workers, caregivers and nursing assistants, physical therapists, play therapists, dental technicians, psychological counselors, and anesthesiology pathologists?are expected to see job growth. Except for some medical specialties like obstetricians and pediatricians, the job outlook for health and medical workers is interpreted as positive.