Amid soaring oil prices following the outbreak of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, analysis shows that Iran is earning as much as 140 million dollars (about 208.7 billion won) per day through crude oil sales. While other oil-producing countries in the region have had their export routes blocked, the United States has reportedly tolerated Iran's exports, considering the potential impact on the global economy.

The Financial Times (FT), citing analysts who track Iran's crude oil shipments via satellite imagery, reported that at least 13 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have been loaded with oil from Kharg Island. According to energy analytics firm Kpler, around 24 million barrels of Iranian crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz during the same period.

Hormuz Strait Map. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News

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Kharg Island is a key oil export hub responsible for about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. On March 14, the United States struck more than 90 military facilities on the island. Although oil infrastructure was not targeted at the time, on March 15, Mike Waltz, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and former White House National Security Advisor under the Trump Administration, stated that air strikes on oil infrastructure remain an option. According to the FT, some hardliners argue that seizing Kharg Island is necessary to strengthen negotiating leverage against Iran.

Since the outbreak of the Iran war, international oil prices have soared above 100 dollars per barrel. This is because Middle Eastern oil producers have drastically reduced output as the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked. With U.S. midterm elections approaching and the need to curb high oil prices, the United States has partially lifted sanctions on Russian oil and now appears to be turning a blind eye to Iranian oil shipments, fearing a shock if supply is completely cut off.

On March 9, when international oil prices surpassed 100 dollars per barrel, the prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) were displayed on a monitor installed at Yonhap Infomax in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that, despite existing sanctions, the U.S. is prepared to tolerate a certain level of Iranian oil sales. He told CNBC, "Iranian vessels have already been transporting crude oil, and we have allowed this to maintain global supply."

Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz not only to its own vessels but also to Indian and Chinese ships. Secretary Bessent commented, "I expect Iran will naturally allow passage. For now, this is acceptable. We want to ensure that there is sufficient supply in the global market."

Although vessels carrying Iranian crude oil attempt to conceal their routes to evade U.S. sanctions, analysts have estimated export volumes using satellite imagery. Before the outbreak of war, Iran accelerated exports, at times loading about 4 million barrels per day. After the start of the conflict, analysts from Kpler and energy analytics firm Vortexa reported that 1.5 to 1.6 million barrels of oil are being loaded onto tankers daily.

Assuming Iran sells at a 10-dollar-per-barrel discount to Brent crude due to U.S. sanctions, this volume translates to approximately 140 million dollars in daily revenue.

On the 11th (local time), smoke rises near the Strait of Hormuz immediately after the attack on the Thai bulk carrier Mayuree Naree. The Royal Thai Navy announced that the Thai bulk carrier navigating the strategic Strait of Hormuz was attacked on the same day, and so far 20 crew members have been rescued. Released by the Royal Thai Navy. AFP Yonhap News Agency. Photo by AFP Yonhap

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Container ships stranded near the Strait of Hormuz on the 11th (local time). Photo by AP Yonhap News

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Kpler analyst Jashan Premma explained, "This is generally consistent with the average we've observed over the past year," noting that most vessels used by Iran are VLCCs capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels each. He added that oil exports have continued even after the U.S. bombed Kharg Island, stating, "Overall, it has remained quite stable, and we have not seen any significant changes."

Vortexa analyst Clare Jungman reported that 7 out of the 13 Iranian-loaded tankers are part of the so-called 'shadow fleet.' Recently, due to concerns over potential U.S. strikes, more vessels belonging to the National Iranian Oil Company have been loaded at Kharg Island, but Jungman expects these transactions to continue.

It is estimated that over 90% of Iran's crude exports are destined for China. Because the discount is substantial, these shipments are mainly purchased by small independent refiners despite ongoing sanctions.