Trump Halts 'Project Freedom' in Hormuz... "Significant Progress in Agreement with Iran" (Comprehensive)

"Coastal blockade to remain"... Negotiation pressure
Iranian Foreign Minister heads to China... Ready for dialogue

Reuters Yonhap News

Reuters Yonhap News

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U.S. President Donald Trump announced that there had been "significant progress in the agreement with Iran," and that he would temporarily halt "Project Freedom," the operation to open the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to his statement, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had declared an end to military operations against Iran. As the likelihood of a full-scale war has diminished, the market has responded positively, with oil prices and exchange rates reflecting the change. The pressure on South Korea to participate in Project Freedom is also expected to ease considerably. However, since the U.S. maritime blockade against Iran continues, and the ceasefire between the two sides remains unstable, concerns about the oil supply chain and maritime logistics are expected to persist for the time being.

Trump: "Project Freedom temporarily suspended... Coastal blockade to remain"

Associated Press Yonhap News

Associated Press Yonhap News

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On the 5th (local time), President Trump stated on his social network service, Truth Social, "In consideration of requests from Pakistan and other countries, and significant progress in negotiations with Iran, we have reached a mutual agreement to temporarily suspend 'Project Freedom.'" However, he added, "The blockade will remain fully in effect," explaining that the maritime blockade against Iran would continue.


Project Freedom is a U.S.-led naval escort operation that began on the 4th, aiming to help vessels trapped in the Strait of Hormuz escape. According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), a total of seven ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military escort over the two days of the 4th and 5th.


Some analysts suggest that this suspension announcement is consistent with President Trump’s characteristic negotiation style. By adding Project Freedom to the existing maritime blockade against Iran, he increased pressure to its maximum before shifting to a negotiation phase.


However, just before President Trump’s announcement to suspend Project Freedom, Secretary Rubio stated that the previous military operation against Iran, codenamed "Epic Fury," had concluded. In a White House briefing, he said, "The operation is over. We have achieved the operation’s objectives," adding, "It is time for Iran to make a wise choice, come to the negotiating table, and accept the proposed terms of agreement." He insisted that Iran should actively participate in negotiations.


Some observers analyze that this may be an attempt by the Trump Administration to avoid the "60-day limit" under the War Powers Act, which allows the president to conduct military operations for a limited period without congressional approval. According to Bloomberg News, "Under the War Powers Act, the president must receive congressional approval to continue war for more than 60 days. The deadline for military operations in Iran was the 1st of this month," adding, "The Trump Administration’s move appears intended to avoid congressional criticism and legal controversy."

Iran: "Ready for dialogue"... Foreign Minister heads to China

AP Yonhap News

AP Yonhap News

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The possibility that Iran might be open to dialogue with the United States is expected to influence the shift in the situation. Iran has begun preparing for concrete negotiations through contact with China. According to Iranian state-run Press TV, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, during a phone call with Iraq's prime minister-designate Ali Al-Zaidi, said, "We are ready for dialogue with the United States within the framework of international law," adding, "We will not yield to the language of threats, intimidation, or the use of force." This has been interpreted as expressing a willingness to negotiate with the U.S. while also voicing dissatisfaction with the ongoing coastal blockade.


On the 6th, according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to visit China and meet with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) in Hong Kong reported, "Minister Araghchi’s visit to China is an extension of his diplomatic efforts to end the war," adding that "Minister Araghchi has recently visited Russia, Oman, and Pakistan to meet with senior officials and seek international support."


The Iranian military has also completely denied allegations made by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) government regarding an airstrike on the UAE's Fujairah oil facility complex. According to Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, a spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Military Headquarters, which commands all Iranian forces, said, "In recent days, the Iranian military has not conducted any missile or drone operations targeting the UAE," adding, "The announcement by the UAE Ministry of Defense is completely false." This is seen as an effort to refrain from military provocations ahead of negotiations with the U.S.


However, Iran has announced that it will further strengthen its control over the Strait of Hormuz. On this day, Iranian authorities announced the introduction of new maritime regulations requiring pre-authorization for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Under this system, all vessels wishing to transit the strait must contact Iran’s official email address and obtain guidance and transit regulations. These moves to codify control over the strait and collect transit fees appear to be pursued independently of negotiations with the U.S.

Risk of full-scale war has decreased... But concerns remain

Reuters Yonhap News

Reuters Yonhap News

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With the significant reduction in the risk of a full-scale war between the two sides, the market has responded favorably. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June delivery closed at $102.27 per barrel, down 3.90% from the previous session. On the London ICE Futures Exchange, Brent crude for July delivery ended the session at $109.87 per barrel, down 3.99% from the previous day. The drop in oil prices and the easing of geopolitical risks triggered a strong rally in not only the New York stock market but also Asian stock markets.


However, some warn that unless a definitive peace agreement is signed between the two sides, concerns about international oil prices and asset market volatility will not be fully resolved. The New York Times (NYT) noted, "A nuclear deal with Iran has yet to be reached, and although estimates vary across intelligence agencies, Iran still retains more than half of its missiles and drones," adding, "It is difficult to be confident that military operations have been completely ended, as Iran’s fundamental position has not changed."


Meanwhile, President Trump’s latest announcement has created the possibility of reduced pressure on South Korea to participate in Project Freedom. At a press conference at the U.S. Department of Defense near Washington, DC, Secretary Hegseth was asked whether South Korea was likely to respond to President Trump’s social media request to join Project Freedom. He replied, "I hope so," and added, "I hope South Korea will step up."

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