Will Song Younggil, Lee Kwangjae, Jo Guk, and Han Donghoon Survive? Overview of Candidates in 14 'Mini General Election' Districts

The June 3 parliamentary by-elections are being dubbed a "mini general election." Fourteen seats are at stake. Thirteen of these constituencies, excluding Dalseong in Daegu-which became vacant after Assemblyman Chu Kyung-ho was nominated as the People Power Party’s candidate for Daegu mayor-are currently held by Democratic Party lawmakers. Attention is focused on whether the Democratic Party will be able to maintain its seat count or if there will be any changes. The fact that several high-profile figures, such as Song Young-gil, Lee Kwang-jae, Jo Guk, and Han Dong-hoon, are running is also noteworthy. The results of the election could dramatically alter their political futures. Not only will individual political careers be affected, but the outcomes are also likely to have a significant impact on party direction and policy platforms, including who runs in future party leadership conventions. For these reasons, the June 3 by-elections serve as a barometer for forecasting the future course of both ruling and opposition parties.

In the Seoul metropolitan area, five by-elections will be held: Gyeyang-eul (Incheon), Yeonsu-gap (Incheon), Ansan-gap (Gyeonggi), Hanam-gap (Gyeonggi), and Pyeongtaek-eul (Gyeonggi). Among these, Yeonsu-gap and Pyeongtaek-eul are drawing particular attention. In Yeonsu-gap, former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil has been strategically nominated as the party's candidate. Although Song initially hoped to run in Gyeyang-eul, where he had previously been elected to five terms, he was edged out by Kim Nam-joon, a former presidential spokesperson and a close aide to President Lee Jae-myung.

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Yeonsu-gap is a district where Assemblyman Park Chan-dae, now the Democratic Party’s Incheon mayoral candidate, was elected three times, but it is also known as a relatively conservative stronghold. In last year's presidential election, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung received 48.30% of the vote in Yeonsu-gu, People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo received 40.68%, and Innovation Party candidate Lee Jun-suk received 9.91%. The People Power Party has not yet finalized its candidate. Should former leader Song win, he is expected to run for party leader at the Democratic Party convention scheduled for August.

Pyeongtaek-eul is the district to watch in terms of whether Jo Guk, candidate for the Jo Guk Innovation Party, can secure victory. He is engaged in a fierce five-way race with Kim Yong-nam (Democratic Party), Yoo Ui-dong (People Power Party), Kim Jae-yeon (Progressive Party), and Hwang Kyo-ahn (Freedom and Innovation). If Jo Guk is elected, it is anticipated that discussions about a merger between the Democratic Party and the Jo Guk Innovation Party, as well as broader realignment talks among pro-government factions ahead of the 2028 general elections, will rapidly gain momentum. Competition among potential next-generation leaders within the ruling bloc is also expected to intensify.

Cho Kuk, leader of the National Innovation Party, is speaking at the first campaign committee meeting held at the National Assembly on the 27th. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

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In the Chungcheong region, elections will be held in Asan-eul (South Chungcheong) and Gongju-Buyeo-Cheongyang. In Asan-eul, the contest will be a "women’s match" between Jeon Eun-soo (Democratic Party) and Kim Min-kyung (People Power Party). In Gongju-Buyeo-Cheongyang, attention is on whether former Presidential Chief of Staff Jung Jin-seok will run. Jung, who has been elected in this district four times, recently attended opening ceremonies for the campaign offices of Gongju mayor and Cheongyang county governor candidates, signaling his intent to run. However, there are also voices contending that, as the last chief of staff to former President Yoon Suk-yeol, Jung should bear responsibility for the turmoil during the administration.

Former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon visited the Mandeok 2-dong Administrative Welfare Center in Buk-gu, Busan, on the afternoon of the 14th, where he completed his residency registration and took photos with local residents. Photo by Yonhap News

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Buk-gu-gap in Busan has emerged as a hotspot with the candidacy of former leader Han Dong-hoon. Ha Jung-woo, former Chief of Future AI Planning at the Blue House, is being mentioned as the Democratic Party candidate, while former Assemblyman Park Min-sik is being discussed as the People Power Party candidate. If Han Dong-hoon overcomes various hurdles-including running as an independent-and wins, he is expected to instantly become a central figure in the conservative realignment. If he loses, it will inevitably deal a significant blow to his political career. For now, Han’s key challenge is to firmly establish a strong two-way race.

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