United Arab Emirates Withdraws from OPEC and OPEC+: Is the Global Oil Market Order at a Turning Point?
by Hwang Yoonju
Published 29 Apr.2026 04:50(KST)
Updated 29 Apr.2026 08:19(KST)
'Oil Cartel' Fractures as UAE Hints at Increased Production
UAE Seeks Its Own Path in Alliances
As the Iran war has maximized risks in the Middle East, cracks have appeared in the system dominated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+ (the consultative group including OPEC and non-OPEC member states), which have long ruled the global crude oil market. This comes as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one of the major oil producers, has announced it will withdraw from OPEC+ and increase production starting June 1. The risk of disruption to the "oil cartel," combined with supply shocks caused by the Iran war, is pushing the international oil price order to a critical turning point.
On the 28th (local time), the UAE announced its decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ via the state-run WAM news agency. The UAE is the third-largest oil producer among member states, following Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
In an interview, Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei, UAE Minister of Energy, stated, "This decision was made after a very careful and lengthy review of all strategies," adding, "We believe now is the right time, as it will not have a major impact on the market. The market is currently in a state of undersupply."
The UAE government also said, "Even after withdrawal, the UAE will continue to act responsibly," and added, "We will supply additional oil production to the market in a gradual and careful manner, in accordance with the demand and conditions of the oil market."
This is interpreted as the UAE intending to determine its oil production independently. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have often clashed over oil production volumes. While the UAE has tried to push for new investments to expand its oil output, Saudi Arabia has pressured for production cuts through OPEC. The UAE had previously mentioned the possibility of withdrawing from OPEC but had not followed through until now.
The UAE's oil production amounts to approximately 4.8 million barrels per day. However, under OPEC's quota system, it produces only around 3.4 million barrels per day. The UAE also possesses sufficient capacity for increased production. Through the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the UAE has made massive investments over several years to expand its production capabilities. As a result, UAE crude oil is relatively inexpensive to produce, according to Michael Haigh, Head of Commodities Research at Societe Generale.
Potential Structural Weakening of OPEC...Impact on Saudi Arabia's Role
The UAE's announcement of withdrawal is expected to inevitably deal a blow to the Middle Eastern oil cartel. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the UAE's withdrawal is projected to reduce OPEC's production capacity by 13%.
OPEC delegates from the Gulf region have warned that the UAE's withdrawal could not only weaken OPEC's ability to manage the market but also further fuel discontent among member states who are dissatisfied with Saudi Arabia's dominance within OPEC.
Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, predicted, "In the long term, this will lead to the structural weakening of OPEC," adding, "With its withdrawal, the UAE will have both the motivation and capacity to increase production, which will raise widespread questions about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia's central role in the market."
Conflict Over Yemen Civil War with Saudi Arabia...Economic Rivalry Also a Factor
Some see the UAE's withdrawal as a foregone conclusion. Bloomberg assessed that this marks the peak of a longstanding tension with Saudi Arabia over oil production policies and competition for political influence in the Middle East.
The two countries became estranged over the Yemen civil war. Although both the UAE and Saudi Arabia jointly intervened in Yemen, they found themselves in conflict as each supported different proxy forces: the UAE backed the Southern Transitional Council (STC), while Saudi Arabia supported the Yemeni government army (PLC).
In January this year, government forces backed by Saudi Arabia captured Aden, a stronghold of the UAE, and with the UAE's complete withdrawal of its remaining troops from Yemen, some have suggested that the military alliance has effectively come to an end.
Furthermore, the economic rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia appears to have influenced the situation. Until now, the Middle East's tourism and financial hub was symbolized by the UAE, particularly Dubai. However, Saudi Arabia is now drawing economic focus by pursuing its "Vision 2030" post-oil project, aiming to establish a financial center that can compete with Dubai.
Is the UAE Pursuing an Independent Security Path?
There are also indications that the UAE is signaling a shift in its foreign and security policy. The UAE suffered the most damage from Iran's retaliatory attacks during this war. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Iran launched more than 2,800 drones and missiles at the UAE, which is far greater than the number of weapons fired at other Gulf countries or even Israel.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Persian Gulf specialist and researcher at Rice University's Baker Institute, analyzed that "Abu Dhabi's perception that existing relationships may not have proven their value in a crisis situation has likely become more pronounced."
Eric Alter, Dean of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy, which maintains close ties with the UAE government, also stated, "The decision to withdraw from OPEC is part of a larger move by the UAE to seek its own path in alliance relationships."
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