Opposition Attempts to Close Seoul Gap While Busan Race Enters Margin of Error

In Seoul and Busan, opposition party candidates are intensifying their campaigns in pursuit of the leading candidates. In Busan, the gap in approval ratings is narrowing, leading to a neck-and-neck race, whereas in Seoul, the People Power Party is seeking a rebound even as the gap remains outside the margin of error.

On April 28, Oh Sehoon, the People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayor, announced the formation of his election campaign committee centered on citizen representatives. A distinctive feature of this committee is the prominent appointment of 12 citizens, each symbolizing a different policy, as "Citizen Accompanying Campaign Committee Chairs."

That morning, candidate Oh boarded the "Early Morning Accompanying Autonomous Bus," engaging with citizens to hear their concerns and officially launching his election campaign. Oh’s camp explained, "This reflects a policy aim that the administration’s focus should be on the most pressing sites of citizens’ daily lives."

Seohun Oh, People Power Party's candidate for Seoul mayor, is greeting citizens as he heads to Bosingak on the 27th. Photo by Yonhap News

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The gap between the ruling and opposition candidates for Seoul mayor is gradually narrowing. According to a survey commissioned by CBS and conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI) on April 22-23 among 1,001 Seoul residents aged 18 or older, and released on April 24, candidate Jung led with 45.6%, 10.2 percentage points ahead of candidate Oh, who received 35.4%. The survey was conducted entirely via wireless ARS automatic response using virtual mobile numbers provided by telecom companies. The response rate was 5.1%, and the margin of error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level (for details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website).

In another survey conducted by Gallup Korea on April 10-11 for Segye Ilbo, targeting 803 Seoul residents aged 18 or older, candidate Jung had a support rate of 52%, 15 percentage points higher than Mayor Oh, who had 37%. This survey used the CATI method, randomly extracting virtual mobile numbers provided by the three major mobile carriers for telephone interviews. The response rate was 11.9%, and the margin of error was ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

In Busan, the race has shifted to a close contest within the margin of error. Political circles attribute this to the consolidation of the conservative base in the PK region (Busan and South Gyeongsang Province) ahead of the election, and also cite former leader Han Donghoon's entry into the Busan Buk-gu Gap by-election as an additional unifying factor.

Park Hyungjun, the People Power Party candidate for mayor of Busan, is holding a picket at Seomyeon Intersection on the 28th, urging the passage of the Global Hub City Special Act. Provided by Park Hyungjun's campaign team

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According to a public opinion poll commissioned by KBS Busan and conducted by Hankook Research on April 17-19 among 1,000 Busan residents aged 18 or older via telephone interviews, Jeon Jaesoo, the Democratic Party of Korea candidate, received 40% support, while Park Hyungjun, the People Power Party candidate, received 34%, marking the first time the race has entered the margin of error. The response rate was 20.5%, and the margin of error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Having completed his registration as a preliminary candidate the previous day, candidate Park officially began his campaign schedule that morning by picketing at Seomyeon Intersection, urging the passage of the Busan Global Hub City Special Act. Park stressed, "It is clear discrimination against Busan that the Lee Jaemyung administration is blocking the special act signed by 1.6 million Busan citizens."

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