[Good Morning Stock Market] "Neither War nor FOMC... The Key Factor Deciding the Direction of the Korean Market"

This week, there are projections that the KOSPI will break through the 6,600-point level, driven by major earnings events in both the United States and Korea.

On April 23, 2026, as optimism grows for the resumption of peace talks between the United States and Iran, the three major indices of the New York Stock Exchange closed higher, and the KOSPI also surpassed the 6550 mark during the session, setting a new all-time high. An employee is monitoring the stock market and exchange rates in the dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yongjun Cho

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On April 27, Kiwoom Securities set this week's forecast range for the KOSPI at 6,380 to 6,680 points.

In the United States, both the S&P 500, which is heavily weighted toward large-cap stocks, and the tech-focused Nasdaq Index reached new all-time highs. This was attributed to renewed optimism over US-Iran negotiations and a sharp 4.3% rise in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, following Intel's earnings surprise.

On April 24 (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,230.71, down 79.61 points (0.16%) from the previous session. In contrast, the S&P 500 rose by 56.68 points (0.80%) to finish at 7,165.08, while the Nasdaq jumped 398.09 points (1.63%) to close at 24,836.60.

This week, the Korean stock market is expected to be most heavily influenced by earnings results. Companies in the defense and shipbuilding industries, such as Hanwha Aerospace, Hyundai Engineering & Construction, and Doosan Enerbility, are set to announce their results. In addition, Intel's share price soared by over 20% on April 24, fueling the growth narrative for the central processing unit (CPU) market and raising expectations for semiconductor stocks whose earnings have already been released.

Earnings announcements from the Magnificent 7 (M7), including Apple and Amazon, are also scheduled. Back in January, despite reporting strong earnings, the M7 stocks showed weak performance due to concerns over profitability stemming from large-scale investments. However, this month, as the Nasdaq reached new record highs, the stock prices of hyperscaler companies (large cloud service providers) rebounded by around 10%, easing pessimism. For first-quarter earnings this year, whether companies can maintain high growth rates in their core businesses, such as cloud and advertising, is expected to determine the direction of their share prices.

The stock market is becoming less sensitive to the US-Iran conflict. Given that both the S&P 500 and KOSPI have hit record highs, investor attention appears to be shifting more toward earnings events than negotiations. Expectations for follow-up talks between the US and Iran have fluctuated. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump canceled a planned visit to Pakistan but left open the possibility of a solution through dialogue.

The market impact of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for April 29 (local time) is also expected to be limited. At last month's FOMC press conference, a hawkish stance emerged, expressing concerns about inflation due to the US-Iran war, which increased market volatility. However, as war risks have eased and the market focus has shifted to earnings season, the center of gravity for the stock market has moved accordingly.

The key point to watch in this FOMC meeting is the press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. According to Fed Watch, the probability of a US rate freeze this month stands at 99%. Attention during this press conference will focus on whether there is a shift in the assessment of inflation risk and any changes in Powell's plans following his term as Fed chair.

Han Ji-Young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, commented, "Most of Korea's leading sectors, such as semiconductors, defense, and construction, have already rallied sharply this month, so first-quarter earnings expectations may already be priced in. Considering this, the strength of the first-quarter earnings surprise and second-quarter profit forecasts shared via conference calls will determine the upward momentum of each sector going forward."

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