Trump, Fierce Critic of Obama’s Iran Nuclear Deal, May Ultimately Accept a Similar Agreement

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has fiercely criticized the nuclear agreement between former President Barack Obama and Iran, may ultimately find himself in a situation where he must accept a similar deal, the Washington Post (WP) pointed out on April 22 (local time).

Former President Obama signed the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with Iran in 2015. President Trump and the Republican Party criticized the Obama administration for allegedly providing cash in exchange for the nuclear agreement and the release of hostages. This refers to the $400 million in weapons purchase payments that the United States owed Iran, which had been delayed since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran; with $1.3 billion in interest, the total reached $1.7 billion. Although this issue was separate from the nuclear agreement itself, the Obama administration paid the sum hoping it would help facilitate the nuclear deal. The JCPOA was effectively abandoned in 2018 after the inauguration of the first Trump administration, which withdrew from the agreement.

U.S. President Donald Trump. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

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However, the current Trump administration now faces a situation where it must negotiate a deal on a similar scale to the JCPOA. It is considering ways to unfreeze $20 billion in Iranian oil revenue that is currently held in banks around the world due to sanctions. This money could be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations to secure Iran's highly enriched uranium. If the funds are released, there will inevitably be criticism that Iran might use the money to further its nuclear ambitions.

Suzanne Maloney, Deputy Director of the Brookings Institution and an Iran expert, pointed out, "They are ultimately facing the same fundamental challenges that shaped more than a decade of negotiations leading to the JCPOA. Iran is not budging at all on the issue of nuclear fuel enrichment."

WP noted that the White House's push for an agreement is putting some of its supporters in an awkward position, especially as the provision of funds is being discussed as a negotiating card.

Richard Goldberg, who handled Iran issues during the first Trump administration and last year worked at the National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC), stated, "Whether it's $20 million or $1 billion, there will always be controversy about whether the money is ultimately being used for these purposes if it goes to a regime that makes no concessions on core illegal activities." He added, "There will always be criticism that the U.S. is indirectly subsidizing their illegal activities." However, he also noted that if the Trump administration can secure Iran's highly enriched uranium and dismantle its underground nuclear facilities, "it would be a game-changer."

President Trump, seemingly aware of these criticisms, claims that the nuclear deal he is pursuing with Iran will be much better than the JCPOA. On April 20, on his social media platform Truth Social, he stated, "The deal we are currently negotiating with Iran is far superior to the so-called 'Iran nuclear deal'-the JCPOA-signed by Barack Hussein Obama and 'Sleepy' Joe Biden," calling the JCPOA "one of the worst agreements ever related to our national security."

The Trump administration is demanding a stronger agreement that not only addresses the nuclear issue handled by the Obama administration, but also comprehensively covers other problems such as missiles and support for proxy forces including Hamas and Hezbollah. It is also pressuring Iran to completely halt uranium enrichment. Having harshly criticized the Obama administration, the Trump administration needs to achieve at least some progress over the JCPOA.

However, as a result, reaching a deal with Iran is likely to face significant difficulties. Wendy Sherman, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and chief U.S. negotiator during the JCPOA talks, commented, "Because the administration is trying to do too much, Iran's demands will be greater than in 2015." She continued, "It's unclear what President Trump's final red line is-whether it's the stockpile, enrichment, missiles, proxy forces, or the Strait of Hormuz."

She added, "If he manages to secure a 10- to 20-year suspension of enrichment, that would be a bigger achievement in that respect. But it's unclear how it would be verified, and there is also the issue of what the Trump administration would have to give up in exchange."

Additionally, the situation has changed significantly since 2015, complicating matters further. In 2015, Iran did not have highly enriched uranium. However, in June last year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had approximately 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity, prior to any U.S. or Israeli strikes. The current Iranian government is also much more hard-line than in 2015.

Some assessments suggest that the recent war has significantly weakened the Iranian government's military power and influence, creating some conditions for negotiation. However, there are also observations that Iran, which maintains leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and has a hardline government in power, may be even less willing to reach a new agreement. Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar at Columbia University who designed Iran sanctions during the Obama administration, said, "Iran has shown that it can withstand and respond to pressure," and noted that it is no longer in a situation where it fears U.S. pressure as it did in the past. He also pointed out that with the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now at the forefront, the internal tension between moderates-who previously allowed for negotiation space-and hardliners has disappeared.

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