Second Round of Talks in Doubt... Iran Remains Silent Despite Trump Proposing Ceasefire End on the 22nd

U.S. President Donald Trump. White House

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After the United States seized an Iranian vessel near the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has postponed its decision to participate in the second round of ceasefire talks, increasing uncertainty in the negotiations. There is also growing criticism that U.S. President Donald Trump's coercive diplomatic strategy has heightened these risks.

On April 20 (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump said in a phone interview with Bloomberg that the ceasefire announced on April 7 "will expire on Wednesday evening, Washington time."

The United States and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire on April 7. Accordingly, the ceasefire deadline was initially reported to be April 21, but The New York Times (NYT) noted that the ceasefire period appears to have been extended by one day, considering that the ceasefire actually took effect on April 8.

Instead, President Trump stated that the likelihood of extending the ceasefire is "very low" and said, "We are not going to rush into a bad deal. We have plenty of time."

President Trump's negative response regarding the possibility of extending the ceasefire stems from the belief that Iran will eventually participate in the negotiations. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing White House officials, reported that while Iran has not officially confirmed its participation in the talks, it has informed mediating countries that it will send a negotiating team.

On the same day, President Trump posted on Truth Social, "The deal we are pursuing with Iran will be much better than the so-called 'Iran nuclear deal,' or JCPOA, signed by Barack Hussein Obama and 'Sleepy' Joe Biden." This suggests that the United States is setting a higher bar for negotiations than the JCPOA signed during the Obama administration.

In another post, he further emphasized, "Most importantly, the 'blockade' that we will not lift until an agreement is reached is completely crippling Iran," making it clear that sanctions against Iran will continue throughout the negotiations.

Contrary to U.S. expectations, Iran has not officially confirmed whether it will attend the second round of talks. Iran has indicated that it finds the U.S. negotiating stance difficult to trust. According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a phone call with Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar on the evening of April 20, criticized "the contradictory positions of the United States and its threatening rhetoric against Iran as fundamental obstacles to continuing the diplomatic process."

This implies that the ongoing diplomatic process is in jeopardy due to the U.S. stance. In particular, Minister Araghchi highlighted the United States' continued provocations and ceasefire violations, citing threats and attacks on Iranian merchant vessels as serious concerns. He added, "Iran will take all aspects of these issues into consideration to decide how to proceed going forward."

Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also refused to answer questions about participating in the second-round talks, stating, "We have not seen any sign that the United States is approaching the negotiations in good faith."

Diplomatic and security experts pointed out that Iran's tough and highly cautious stance reflects the impact of President Trump's coercive diplomatic strategy. Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran security expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said, "Iran's leadership is under pressure from hardliners within the country," adding, "They have a core base of support as a highly hardline and ideological Islamic Republic and are extremely sensitive to any sign of concession."

Some Iranian government officials are concerned that the United States could resume full-scale hostilities even during the second round of talks. Sasan Karimi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, said, "Iran does not want to fall into a trap, nor does it want to engage in negotiations under time constraints or with preconditions. If that is the case, Iran will choose war."

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