Despite US-Iran Tensions, Hopes for Truce Remain... KOSPI Rises Over 1%

On the 20th, the KOSPI index opened at 6,213.92, up 22 points from the previous trading day, displayed on the electronic board in the dealing room of Hana Bank's headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. The USD-KRW exchange rate started trading at 1,479.5 won, down 4 won from the previous trading day. April 20, 2026, Photo by Kang Jinhyung

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Despite ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, expectations for an end to the conflict have driven the Korean stock market higher. Funds surrounding the stock market, such as investors’ deposits and margin balances, are also increasing. With anticipation building for SK Hynix’s earnings announcement on the 23rd, the KOSPI is expected to continue challenging its record highs.

On April 20, the KOSPI opened at 6,213.92, up 0.36% from the previous trading day, and expanded its gains, trading at 6,259.59 as of 10:18 a.m., up 1.09%. The KOSDAQ initially started at 1,167.10, down 0.25% from the previous session, but rebounded to 1,185.48, up 1.32%. The USD-KRW exchange rate started at 1,479.5 won, down 4.0 won from the previous day, and later fell into the 1,474 won range.

Although the New York stock market surged last Friday on hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, renewed tensions in the Middle East over the weekend led the Korean market to open flat. The Iranian government announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened, but the following day, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reversed this decision, causing market sentiment to freeze again. Meanwhile, the United States seized an Iranian cargo ship, increasing uncertainty around further negotiations and causing international oil prices to spike again. However, as the U.S. sent a delegation back to Pakistan for negotiations, hopes for an end to the conflict persist, leading the Korean stock market to further expand its gains.

Lee Kyungmin, a researcher at Daishin Securities, explained, “While the direction toward an end to the conflict is clear, volatility in the stock market may continue due to noise in the negotiation process.”

As of 10:21 a.m., foreign investors were net sellers of approximately 300 billion won on the KOSPI, while institutions and individual investors were net buyers of 260 billion won and 23 billion won, respectively. Among the large-cap stocks, SK Hynix was trading at 1,162,000 won, up 3.01% from the previous session, and Samsung Electronics was at 216,500 won, up 0.23%.

LG Energy Solution (up 2.51%), Doosan Enerbility (up 4.98%), and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (up 1.17%) were among the gainers, while Hyundai Motor (down 1.02%), Kia (down 0.38%), and Samsung Biologics (down 0.31%) were on the decline. As military tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz, defense stocks such as Hanwha Aerospace (up 0.91%), Hyundai Rotem (up 2.55%), LIG Defense & Aerospace (up 2.51%), and Hanwha Systems (up 0.08%) were posting gains.

Even as tensions persist in the Middle East, the stock market’s rise close to previous highs has led to a recovery in investor deposits. According to the Korea Financial Investment Association, as of April 16, investors’ deposits stood at 119.0742 trillion won. Investor deposits refer to funds kept in accounts for stock purchases and are a key indicator of available capital that could flow into the market. Typically, an increase in deposits signals improved investor sentiment and expanded liquidity.

Investor deposits reached 132.0682 trillion won on March 4, immediately following the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran, as bargain-hunting surged. However, as the conflict dragged on, deposits fell to 107.4674 trillion won by April 6.

Margin trading balances have also been rising rapidly. As of April 16, the balance of credit transactions stood at 33.8722 trillion won, with 23.4258 trillion won concentrated in the KOSPI market alone. Margin trading, in which investors borrow funds from securities firms to purchase stocks, can maximize returns in a rising market but carries the risk of forced liquidation in a downturn, making it a high-risk investment strategy.

In particular, leveraged funds are showing a clear preference for leading semiconductor stocks. As of April 16, the outstanding margin balance for Samsung Electronics increased by 46.0%, from 2.3065 trillion won on February 27 to 3.3683 trillion won on April 17. Over the same period, SK Hynix’s margin balance rose from 1.7358 trillion won to 2.2741 trillion won, up 31.0%. As the KOSPI surpassed the 6,000 mark in February, “FOMO” (fear of missing out) sentiment spread again. With geopolitical risks easing, more investors are seeking to maximize returns using leverage.

Volatility is expected to persist as the Korean stock market enters the first-quarter earnings season. SK Hynix is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results on April 23, followed by earnings reports from Hyundai Motor, Kia, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, KB Financial Group, and other large-cap companies.

According to FnGuide, the consensus estimate for SK Hynix’s first-quarter operating profit over the past month is 3.8 trillion won. As Samsung Electronics previously reported first-quarter earnings that far exceeded market expectations, there is strong anticipation that SK Hynix will also post an operating profit of more than 4 trillion won. Some analysts believe that the direction of the Korean stock market will be determined by SK Hynix’s earnings.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, stated, “Early this week, we expect increased volatility in the Korean stock market as uncertainty around U.S.-Iran negotiations coincides with expectations for the earnings season. While there may be short-term selling pressure after companies announce their results, the outlook for profit improvement remains unchanged, so the market is likely to attempt a renewed breakout to previous highs.”

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