"If Hormuz Blockade Persists, 'This' Could Disappear from Tables... Japan in Turmoil over Supply Disruption Fears"

Bananas displayed at a major supermarket in Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News

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The aftermath of the war in the Middle East is shaking the Japanese economy in unexpected ways. Concerns have been raised that instability in crude oil supply is affecting the entire food distribution structure, extending beyond simple increases in energy prices, and could even impact the supply of bananas, a representative low-priced fruit. In particular, if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz becomes prolonged, it is highly likely to put pressure on the overall supply of everyday consumer goods.

On April 19, Japan’s Sankei Shimbun reported, "The unstable crude oil supply situation is spreading into unexpected areas," and cited bananas as a prime example. Japan relies almost entirely on imports for bananas, which are brought in while still unripe due to quarantine regulations and then ripened domestically.

The issue is that ethylene gas, essential to this ripening process, is produced using naphtha as a raw material. If there is a disruption in the supply of naphtha, which is derived from crude oil, the ripening process can be delayed, directly leading to distribution disruptions. Industry sources have also expressed concern that if securing naphtha becomes difficult, shipments themselves could be delayed.

Furthermore, this impact is not limited to bananas. The same effect could be felt across all imported fruits that require post-ripening, such as kiwis and avocados, raising the possibility of supply instability spreading to the entire fruit market.

The repercussions are also expected to extend to processed foods. Vanillin, a key ingredient used to create vanilla flavor in products such as ice cream and chocolate, is also produced through chemical processes based on naphtha.

The impact of the Hormuz blockade is expected to extend to processed foods such as ice cream. Pixabay

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In particular, synthetic vanillin is more cost-competitive than natural flavorings and is widely used in budget product lines; if the supply of raw materials becomes unstable, it is inevitable that production of related products will face disruptions. This, in turn, could contribute to a noticeable increase in consumer prices.

Sankei Shimbun noted, "Since (artificial) vanillin products that utilize benzene rings are much less expensive than natural flavors, supply disruptions are expected for affordable goods," adding, "What is needed is to save petroleum in our daily lives."

Japan maintains a certain level of oil reserves, but there are concerns in the market that psychological anxiety over supply instability could have a greater impact than actual physical stockpiles.

If the upward trend in crude oil prices continues, both businesses and consumers may move to secure supplies in advance, potentially triggering so-called "panic buying." This could amplify instability in distribution markets, regardless of the actual supply situation.

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