"Job Losses in the AI Era Will Be Limited to 10%... Certain Roles Will See More Work"

An analysis has emerged suggesting that concerns over job losses in the age of artificial intelligence (AI) are excessive.

A job sign is posted on a street in the United States. Photo by AP Yonhap News.

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According to Yonhap News Agency on April 19, Boston Consulting Group (BCG), in its report published earlier this month titled "AI: Not Job Replacement, but Job Redesign," stated, "Within the next two to three years, 50 to 55 percent of jobs in the United States will be reshaped due to the influence of AI." However, the report also projected that "the proportion of jobs that are likely to disappear completely will remain at only 10 to 15 percent."

BCG assessed that the impact of AI on jobs goes beyond simply substituting human labor, and that the outcome varies significantly depending on the scalability of demand for each role.

For example, in the case of call center agents, even if AI reduces the cost of handling standardized inquiries, the total number of consultations does not increase proportionally. Therefore, automation driven by AI is classified as a "substitutional" role, where automation leads directly to reduced workforce demand.

In contrast, for software engineers, even if AI assists with coding and lowers development costs, the "Jevons paradox" comes into play-where technological advancement increases the efficiency of resource use, yet the total use of that resource also rises as companies seek to develop more programs. As a result, this is classified as an "augmentation" role, where the volume of work increases.

According to Yonhap News Agency, the number of software engineers has steadily grown over the past three years. From 2023 to 2025, AI-focused software companies saw their engineering workforce grow at an average annual rate of 6.5 percent, compared to an industry average growth rate of 2.0 percent.

Photo showing a job fair in China to help understand the article. Photo by AFP Yonhap News.

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The analysis also highlighted the secondary effects that may arise from the shift in roles caused by the introduction of AI agents. As repetitive work becomes automated, the remaining work may increasingly involve integrating complex information-such as problem-solving and decision-making-which could heighten the cognitive load on workers.

Additionally, while demand for entry-level employees responsible for execution-oriented tasks may decrease, the qualifications required for senior-level employees-who can supervise and evaluate AI outputs-are expected to rise, potentially raising barriers to entry into the labor market.

BCG emphasized, "Executives should not simply use AI as a tool for workforce reduction and cost savings, but instead establish talent strategies that focus on upskilling and redesigning work processes to strengthen job capabilities. Blindly following other companies' workforce reduction measures could result in the loss of both productivity and long-term competitiveness."

This analysis applied a structured framework using detailed microeconomic data, including the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the approximately 1,500-role classification system from global labor market analytics firm Revelio Labs. The scope of the analysis covered about 165 million jobs in the United States, with calculations that comprehensively considered variables such as the speed of technological adoption, demand capacity, and structural scalability.

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