Elderly Care Facing 'Workforce Bankruptcy' Crisis... KDI: "Shortage of 990,000 Caregivers by 2043"

A national think tank has warned that South Korea's elderly care system could face a state of "workforce bankruptcy" within the next 20 years. This is because, starting from 2030 when the baby boomer generation enters the super-aged demographic, demand for care is expected to surge, while the supply of caregivers is projected to decline sharply. As a result, there are growing calls for urgent measures such as expanding the employment of foreign caregivers to address the issue.

On the 24th, an elderly person was taking a walk with a caregiver at the rooftop garden of the Eunpyeong Senior Care Center in Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul. The Eunpyeong Senior Care Center is a public elderly care facility that Seoul City established as the first in the nation through a public contribution method in a private development project. It was constructed on the redevelopment site of Susaek 13 district housing. The facility spans from basement level 1 to the 6th floor above ground and opened its doors in May. Photo by Jin-Hyung Kang

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According to the report "Outlook and Policy Directions for the Elderly Care Service Workforce" released by the Korea Development Institute (KDI) on April 16, the demand for long-term care services in 2043 is expected to increase by more than 2.4 times compared to 2023. In particular, the demand curve will steepen after 2030, when the first wave of baby boomers turns 75 or older.

However, the supply outlook is bleak. The number of caregivers is projected to peak at 806,000 in 2034 and then begin to decline. To maintain the current level of service, an additional 990,000 workers will be needed in 2043, but the current structure, which relies heavily on women in their 50s and 60s, is unsustainable. The aging of the workforce itself is also severe; by 2043, it is predicted that 7 out of 10 caregivers will be aged 60 or older.

The report proposes expanding the recruitment of foreign caregivers as an alternative. However, current policies are not functioning effectively in practice. As of 2023, there were only 6,400 foreign caregivers, accounting for less than 1% of the total. Of these, 56.6% are aged 60 or older, and 77% are concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan area, which means the supply-demand imbalance in local regions where the need is greatest remains unresolved.

Researcher Kwon Jeong-hyun stated, "The current pilot program for international students has clear limitations as it essentially lures them into low-skilled jobs by offering residency visas. It is urgent to introduce an 'occupation-specific visa' and a 'quota management system' that would select foreigners who wish to work in elderly care from the outset, provide them with professional vocational training, and then issue visas."

While there are increasing calls for the adoption of care robots, the response at the ground level remains lukewarm. Although 9 out of 10 care facilities acknowledge the need, only 6.4% have actually adopted them. The biggest barrier is cost. Since more than half of the facilities responded that they would introduce robots if financial support were available, a shift to demand-driven policies is needed, including not only development support but also subsidies for purchase and rental costs, and reflecting these expenses in long-term care insurance rates.

Researcher Kwon added, "Without improving job quality, such as raising wage levels, it is impossible to secure a steady inflow of domestic workers, let alone retain foreign workers. There must be both a public discussion and a shift in public perception that better services require greater financial contributions."

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