Earnings Rally in Full Swing... Which Sectors Will Rise After Semiconductors?

During the first-quarter earnings season, expectations are rising that the 'earnings surprise' phenomenon, which started with semiconductors, will spread to the energy and securities sectors as well. As the overall operating profits of KOSPI-listed companies are significantly exceeding market consensus, the market is entering a phase where it responds more sensitively to earnings improvements than to geopolitical risks. Past cases have shown that upward revisions in earnings tend to lead to sustained stock price increases, and many analysts believe that this trend is likely to repeat itself this time.

In particular, the securities sector is forecast to achieve record-breaking results on the back of increased trading volume, with brokerage commission income identified as a key growth driver. While the energy sector is also expected to report strong surprises, its performance is affected by oil price variables. In contrast, semiconductors and securities are considered to have an edge in terms of earnings visibility and sustainability. Ultimately, the market is now transitioning from a focus on war to a focus on earnings, making it effective to concentrate on sectors where upward revisions in earnings are being confirmed.

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