"Something Could Happen Within Two Days"... Will the Second U.S.-Iran Talks Mark a Turning Point in the War?

U.S. President Donald Trump. The White House

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U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that a second round of ceasefire talks with Iran could resume within two days, marking a critical turning point in determining whether the Iran War will officially end. Although military tensions persist, both sides are making efforts to avoid friction ahead of the second round of talks. As in the first round, a tug-of-war over the duration of uranium enrichment is expected between the two sides. Some analysts say that if differences are narrowed, this could become a decisive turning point for reaching a ceasefire agreement.

On April 14 (local time), in a phone interview with the New York Post, President Trump told a reporter, "You should stay there," adding, "Because something could happen within the next two days, and the chances of us going there have increased."

Particular attention has been drawn to President Trump’s direct suggestion of a possible second round of talks with Iran. This remark came about 30 minutes after he finished his interview with the New York Post, during a follow-up phone call with the reporter. Just prior to this, President Trump told the reporter, "The next round of talks is likely to be held somewhere other than Pakistan."

While the United States continues military pressure by launching a counter-blockade of Iranian maritime routes, behind the scenes, diplomatic solutions are being sought ahead of the two-week ceasefire deadline on the 21st.

According to AP and other outlets, the second round of ceasefire talks could take place as soon as the 16th. The location has not yet been decided. While Islamabad, Pakistan, which hosted the first round, is a strong contender, European venues such as Switzerland are also being considered.

On the same day, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also lent support to the possibility of a second round of talks. After meeting with Mohammad Ishaq Dar, Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, at the UN headquarters in New York, Secretary-General Guterres told reporters, "There are strong indications that the talks are very likely to resume."

Press Center in Islamabad, Pakistan, where the first ceasefire talks were held. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

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Iran is also preparing to resume the second round of talks. Both Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, and Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs-both of whom led the first round of ceasefire talks-are reportedly demonstrating their willingness to resume negotiations.

As part of these efforts, Bloomberg has reported that Iran is considering the temporary suspension of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, either to avoid provoking the United States-which has launched a counter-blockade of the strait-or to prevent the collapse of the second round of talks. The aim is to avoid heightened tensions while the United States and Iran coordinate the details of the second ceasefire talks.

Previously, the Trump Administration announced a 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian crude oil in order to curb soaring oil prices. As a result, even if Iran exported crude oil to China and other countries via the Strait of Hormuz, the United States did not intervene. However, if the United States reimposes sanctions on Iranian crude oil, Iran will find it difficult to continue exports through the strait. Currently, with the United States having launched a counter-blockade of Iranian maritime routes, it appears that Iran is seeking to avoid confrontation by temporarily suspending shipments through the strait.

Rachel Ziemba, a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, analyzed, "If Iran actually suspends its crude oil shipments, this would signal that the Iranian government also wants to ease tensions and avoid a resumption of war." She added, "While a suspension would exacerbate a temporary supply disruption in the oil market, the global market is likely to focus more on the possibility of an agreement than on short-term supply disruptions."

Furthermore, Al Jazeera reported that Iran is also considering dispatching a technical team to bridge gaps with the United States in the nuclear negotiations.

The main issue in the second round of talks is also expected to be the duration of uranium enrichment. In the first round, the United States demanded Iran halt uranium enrichment for 20 years, while Iran expressed willingness to suspend enrichment for up to five years, leading to a breakdown in negotiations.

The United States and Iran have consistently clashed over the duration of uranium enrichment in nuclear negotiations. The New York Times assessed that, unlike previous U.S. demands for Iran to permanently forgo uranium enrichment rights, the current dispute over the suspension period indicates that both sides have a willingness to reach an agreement.

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