IEA: "Iran War Fallout... Worst Oil Supply Disruption This Year"
by Hwang Yoonju
Published 15 Apr.2026 04:17(KST)
Average Daily Supply to Drop by 1.5 Million Barrels This Year
Forecast Shifts from "Production Increase" Last Month
Largest Decline Since COVID-19 Pandemic
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected on April 14 (local time) that this year’s global oil supply will decline sharply compared to last year due to the aftermath of the Iran war. This overturns last month's forecast for increased production and signals what is expected to be the worst supply disruption on record.
According to the IEA’s April oil market report released on this day, the global supply of oil (including condensates and natural gas liquids) is forecast to decrease by an average of 1.5 million barrels per day this year compared to last year. This is a dramatic reversal from last month’s report, which had projected an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day.
Following the Iran war, global oil supply in March was recorded at an average of 97 million barrels per day, which represents a decrease of 10.1 million barrels compared to last year. The IEA described this as “the worst supply disruption on record.”
Daily production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, amounted to 42.4 million barrels, down 9.4 million barrels.
Non-OPEC+ production stood at 54.7 million barrels. Despite increased production in Brazil and the United States, output decreased by 770,000 barrels due to production cuts in Qatar.
This year, global oil demand is also expected to decline by an average of 80,000 barrels per day compared to last year. This is a reversal from last month’s report, which had projected an increase of 640,000 barrels per day.
In particular, demand in the second quarter of this year is expected to fall by an average of 1.5 million barrels per day year-on-year. The report noted that this would mark the largest decrease since 2020, when fuel consumption plunged during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The IEA stated, “The initial decline in demand is mainly seen in naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and jet fuel in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, but as supply shortages and high prices persist, demand destruction is expected to spread.”
In early April, crude oil and petroleum product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached just 3.8 million barrels per day, about 20% of the pre-war level of 20 million barrels per day.
In March, global oil inventories declined by 85 million barrels. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, a total of 205 million barrels flowed out from regions outside the Gulf, while, in contrast, floating storage in the Middle East increased by 100 million barrels and onshore inventories by 20 million barrels, as exports became difficult.
The IEA explained, “This report’s outlook is based on the assumption that regular shipments of oil and gas from the Middle East to international markets will resume by mid-year.”
The agency further warned, “If the war continues, energy markets and countries around the world must be prepared for severe disruptions lasting several months.”
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