U.S. Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz... 3 Key Variables [Yang Nakkyu's Defence Club]

The United States has moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, but the prevailing view is that a unilateral operation would be virtually impossible. This is because Iran still possesses the capability to counter the U.S. Navy, and it would be insufficient for U.S. warships alone to clear the mines.

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According to foreign media reports on April 14, the United States is expected to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to cut off Iran's "energy funding source." The main objectives of this operation are to halt Iran's export of domestic crude oil and block the collection of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, thereby disrupting the flow of funds and maximizing pressure on Iran. In addition, removing mines planted by Iran to ensure the free passage of ships through the strait and easing international oil market instability are also cited as major tasks.

The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to proceed in steps: securing safe passage routes by clearing mines, identifying vessels from various countries, and blocking ships bound for Iran. The blockade targets identified by the United States include all Iranian ports on both the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, as well as any vessels from any country entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal regions. Experts believe that, to guarantee the safe passage of ships not connected to Iran, some U.S. naval vessels must conduct boarding inspections, while others should remain on standby in surrounding waters to respond to possible Iranian interference. Given that, prior to the Iran war, an average of about 130 ships passed through the strait daily, there are concerns that managing such a large volume of ship traffic may face physical limitations.

Clearing the mines is a top priority for enabling vessel passage. The United States has dispatched two destroyers, the USS Frank E. Petersen and the USS Michael Murphy, to the Strait of Hormuz. These two destroyers were the first U.S. ships to pass through the Strait since the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran in February. The destroyers are continuing efforts to open up sea lanes within the strait. In addition, mine countermeasure assets such as Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) are expected to be deployed within days to speed up mine detection and removal.

However, removing the various types of mines Iran is expected to have deployed is not likely to be easy. The mines that Iran can install in the strait are believed to include not only contact mines that explode upon impact, but also mines triggered by the static electricity generated by passing vessels, acoustic mines that react to sound, and delayed-action mines that only activate after a certain number of ships have passed. Karl Schuster, former director of the Joint Intelligence Center at U.S. Pacific Command, noted that some mines may remain undetected or unexploded, and that dealing with complex types of mines would be especially challenging.

Iranian resistance is also expected. Iran still possesses mines, small boats capable of carrying missiles, surface and aerial drones, ground-launched cruise missiles, and shoulder-fired anti-air missiles. This means Iran retains enough capability to counter the U.S. Navy. As a result, even though both sides have agreed to a "two-week ceasefire," the likelihood of renewed military conflict in the strait area may actually increase. In fact, Iran has warned that if the United States proceeds with a naval blockade, it will regard all warships passing through the Strait of Hormuz as violating the ceasefire and respond accordingly.

James Stavridis, a former U.S. Navy admiral and Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, emphasized that to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military would need two carrier strike groups and 12 warships outside the Gulf, as well as at least six destroyers inside the Gulf, stressing that "blockade operations must be conducted on both sides of the strait." Given that, prior to the Iran war, an average of about 130 ships passed through the strait daily, there are concerns that managing such a large volume of ship traffic may face physical limitations.

Given the limits of U.S. unilateral mine-clearing capabilities, it is expected that support from allied and partner nations will be essential to fully secure safe passage routes. President Trump has stated that multiple countries will cooperate regarding the Hormuz blockade, but so far, only a limited number of nations have publicly expressed their intention to participate.

The United Kingdom declared on April 12 that it would not participate in the naval blockade. Japan also stated on April 13 that it has not made any decision to dispatch its Self-Defense Forces to the U.S. naval blockade operation. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said, "We hope the United States and Iran will reach a final agreement through diplomacy. No decision at all has been made regarding the dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces."

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