[Electric Vehicles, Now It's All About Infrastructure⑤] Exploding Demand, Stalled Supply... The Start of Chaevi's 'J-Curve'

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The number of electric vehicles is soaring, but the fast-charging infrastructure is actually shrinking. Amid this structural imbalance where demand and supply are moving in opposite directions, the utilization rate of already-established charging infrastructure is rising rapidly. Most of Chaevi’s charging stations in the Seoul area have already surpassed the break-even point. With each additional electric vehicle sold, Chaevi's profits grow at an even faster pace. Now that the supply shortage has become a reality, the inflection point of the J-curve has already begun.

While the rate of electric vehicle adoption is climbing steeply, new supply of fast-charging infrastructure has moved in the opposite direction over the same period. In the first quarter of this year, the net increase was only 100 units. Compared to the nearly 2,000-unit increase in the first quarter of 2025, this marks a 95% decline. Demand is exploding, but supply has stalled. The ‘supply shortage’ has become a reality.

As of 2026, the vehicle-to-fast charger ratio is 16 to 1. By 2030, this gap is expected to widen to 29 to 1. This is a clear signal that the market is entering a new phase of structural supply shortage, beyond simple supply-demand imbalance. In addition, as the grace period for mandatory installation of slow chargers ends in January 2026, demand is rapidly shifting toward public fast-charging stations. Demand that once relied on slow chargers in apartment parking lots is now turning toward urban fast-charging stations.

The profit structure of the fast-charging infrastructure business follows a J-curve. After the initial investment to secure key locations, profitability surges once electric vehicle adoption surpasses a certain threshold. In an environment where supply is limited, this leverage effect is amplified. With electric vehicles on track to surpass 1 million units and the goal of 300,000 new vehicles in 2026 likely to be exceeded, the inflection point is now imminent.

In a market defined by supply-demand imbalance, the utilization rate of existing charging infrastructure rises quickly, leading directly to improved profitability. The fast-charging CPO (Charge Point Operator) business model has a contribution margin exceeding 50%. Once sales surpass a certain level, fixed costs are rapidly offset and profits improve sharply.

Kiwoom Securities has presented a break-even point for the CPO business at a 10% utilization rate based on 24 hours. While the average utilization rate for all CPOs is 3.8%, and 4.5% in Seoul, Chaevi’s utilization rate in the Seoul area is about twice that of other operators, with most stations already breaking even. With each additional electric vehicle sold, Chaevi’s profits increase even faster. Having proactively built out fast-charging infrastructure, Chaevi is considered the operator benefiting most from this profit leverage effect.

The fast-charging market is, in effect, a winner-takes-all game. Operators who secure key sites absorb cumulative demand and widen the gap with their competitors. Chaevi has proactively secured core locations such as city landmarks, public facilities, and large commercial sites, accumulating the largest operational track record. This is not just about installation scale, but about real competitiveness in utilization rate and profitability.

The current market is not about ‘who has installed more,’ but ‘who has entered the profit zone first.’ By that standard, Chaevi is already ahead. Chaevi aims to achieve positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter of this year and turn to operating profit in the fourth quarter of 2027. However, given the pace of electric vehicle adoption, this timeline could be brought forward.

Chaevi has proposed an expected IPO price per share of 12,300 to 15,300 won. The anticipated market capitalization after listing is in the 700 billion won range, which is seen as a conservative valuation compared to previously discussed figures exceeding 1 trillion won. The IPO structure consists of 100% new shares with no existing shares being sold, and the float is set at 24.84%, with the possibility of further reduction depending on the institutional lock-up ratio, highlighting the scarcity value of available shares. The investment banking industry analyzes that the combination of high valuation potential relative to the IPO price and low float increases the likelihood of strong demand during the book-building process.

The spread of electric vehicles is an irreversible trend. Demand is already established, policy is accelerating it, and the energy structure is locking in this direction. What remains is infrastructure. With each additional electric vehicle, charging demand accumulates and focuses on existing infrastructure. In this structure, operators who see their utilization rate rise first reap the greatest benefits. In the era of electric vehicles, it is infrastructure-not the vehicles themselves-that determines the winners. In this winner-takes-all structure, Chaevi is already ahead.

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