[Electric Vehicles, Now It's About Infrastructure④] The Electric Vehicle Boom... On Track to Reach 400,000 Units This Year

원본보기 아이콘

The transition to electric vehicles is inevitable in the pursuit of reducing reliance on crude oil. As the existing imperatives of eco-friendliness and decarbonization are joined by the goal of energy independence, electric vehicles have become not merely an option but an unavoidable pathway. At the heart of this transition lies rapid charging infrastructure.

Geopolitical risks originating in the Middle East are no longer one-off events. With forecasts indicating that oil prices will remain high even after the end of conflicts, oil price volatility is now seen as a structural and recurring risk factor. As these shocks accumulate, the importance of energy self-sufficiency and the demand for cost stability grow, continuously increasing the pressure to switch to electric vehicles.

Estimated electric vehicle sales presented in the securities report by Chaebee. Provided by Chaebee

원본보기 아이콘

The fuel costs for internal combustion engine vehicles are directly tied to international oil prices. When oil prices rise, consumers immediately feel the financial burden. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, are different. Their charging fees are determined based on a distributed cost structure that reflects factors such as investment in power generation facilities, transmission and distribution costs, and operation and maintenance costs. As a result, oil price shocks are not directly passed on to charging fees and are largely buffered.

In particular, during periods of heightened oil price volatility due to instability in the Middle East, the transition to electric vehicles has emerged as a national energy issue, extending beyond individual economic choices. From the perspective of energy policy, the efficiency of electric vehicles is a critical rationale. Even with the current power mix, where fossil fuel-based generation remains high, the energy conversion efficiency (Well-to-Wheel) of electric vehicles is about 1.5 to 2 times higher than that of internal combustion engine vehicles.

If the share of renewable energy and nuclear power increases, this gap will widen further. This indicates that the transition to electric vehicles represents a structural change leading to stronger energy self-sufficiency and economic stability, as well as a core task for energy security.

Moreover, as the diversification of power sources, such as renewables and nuclear, progresses, the dependence of electric vehicles on oil prices decreases even further. Ultimately, the energy costs for electric vehicles are lower and less volatile than for internal combustion engine vehicles. The most practical way to break away from an oil-centric energy structure is through electric vehicles. This is a matter of structural inevitability, not a question of direction.

With high oil price risks now a reality, the transition to electric vehicles has become an existential issue that goes beyond being simply "eco-friendly." Especially for the Korean economy, which is vulnerable to Middle East-originated crises, the spread of electric vehicles is more of a matter of survival in terms of energy security. As this trend solidifies, the strategic and economic value of charging infrastructure is bound to grow.

The faster the transition to electric vehicles, the higher the demand for charging will become. The question is: where will this demand be met? According to the 2025 Population and Housing Census published by Statistics Korea, the share of multi-family housing in Korea is 79.6%, about twice as high as in major countries in the United States and Europe. According to the K-apt Apartment Management Information System, the average number of parking spaces per household in multi-family housing is 1.05 vehicles, and even newly built complexes since 2000 only average around 1.2 spaces. In this environment, the proliferation of slow, non-public charging that reduces existing parking spaces is revealing structural limitations. In complexes with tight parking, the system in which only electric vehicles occupy spaces for long periods inevitably leads to disputes among residents.

Power infrastructure is another major limiting factor. The power supply capacity of apartment buildings is determined during the design stage of construction, making it difficult to expand capacity after residents have moved in to meet increased charging demand. Even if transformer expansion is possible, bringing in high-voltage power requires construction costs in the hundreds of millions of won. Additionally, with the surge in large-scale power demand for data centers, the available spare power by region is shrinking. In this context, installing a large number of slow chargers for residents of specific apartment complexes could result in allocating public power resources to a limited area, potentially raising concerns about fairness.

The decline of slow charging signals increasing demand for rapid charging infrastructure. As conflicts over apartment charging intensify and the limitations of non-public and slow charging-based models become more apparent, the strategic value of public rapid charging stations located throughout urban areas increases. The center of gravity for charging is shifting from "home charging" to "everyday hubs."

The public rapid charging market is not an open field anyone can enter. It requires a combination of capabilities, including large-scale power supply facilities, high-voltage power access, and securing sites. To secure sites and install rapid chargers, companies must prove their charging data accumulated from long-term operations, as well as their quick maintenance systems, which serve as entry barriers. Companies that entered the market earlier are at an absolute advantage, resulting in the current "big three" system centered on Chaebee, SK, and Lotte.

Unlike slow charging, the purpose of rapid charging is to complete charging in a short time through high-voltage charging, making safety and quality paramount. Charging failures or malfunctions immediately inconvenience users, and this process strengthens the preference for operators with higher brand reliability. Users are inevitably drawn to more reliable charging stations.

Even within the so-called "big three" system, differences among operators are evident. Chaebee has achieved an operational efficiency approximately twice as high as its competitors in Seoul and about 1.3 times higher nationwide, widening the gap in operational efficiency. As the market restructures around rapid charging, Chaebee is positioned most advantageously.

The energy crisis is not a one-off event but a recurring structural phenomenon. As oil price instability continues, the need for the transition to electric vehicles becomes stronger, and the pace of change accelerates. The question for the market has shifted: it's no longer "How many electric vehicles will be sold?" but "Can the charging infrastructure keep up with that pace?" What determines the speed of transition is not the vehicle, but the infrastructure. Ultimately, the establishment of charging infrastructure and securing key sites will determine who benefits from this inevitable transformation.

The estimate of 240,000 electric vehicles in the business plan for Chaebee's upcoming IPO, scheduled for listing on April 29, is already far off the mark. Not only is Chaebee’s optimistic projection of 270,000 units in 2026 presented in its securities report at risk, but there is also a possibility that even the 360,000-unit optimistic projection for 2027 could be surpassed in 2026.

With Chaebee’s listing scheduled for April 29, the company conservatively estimated 240,440 electric vehicles for 2026 and 323,069 units for 2027 in its securities report - respectively 59% and 68% of the "annual EV distribution target," taking into consideration that some supply record is also recognized through distribution exceeding hybrid vehicles. The optimistic projections are 267,156 units for 2026 and 358,965 units for 2027. However, recent market trends indicate that not only will more units be supplied than Chaebee's optimistic estimates, but even the 320,000 units (neutral scenario) and 350,000 units (optimistic scenario) projected for 2027 are expected to be exceeded in 2026.

Last month, out of 161,517 newly registered vehicles in Korea, 41,918 were electric vehicles, accounting for 26.0%. This is about 2.5 times higher than the same month a year ago (17,694 units). On a cumulative basis, electric vehicle sales have finally surpassed 1 million, reaching 1,014,442 units.

The more notable aspect is the pace of growth. Unlike the past 15 years, during which cumulative sales remained at about 900,000 units, this year alone is projected to see approximately 400,000 units sold. Considering that 87,627 units have already been sold in the first quarter - typically the weakest period before subsidies are distributed - it is almost certain that annual sales will surpass 400,000 units.

The market environment Chaebee assumed when formulating its business plan is already a thing of the past. Demand is accumulating faster than expected, and this demand is ultimately directed toward charging infrastructure. The fact that the business plan has missed the mark is not a risk for Chaebee, but rather an opportunity. It means profitability is improving more rapidly than anticipated. If Chaebee's calculations were wrong, they were wrong in a way that works in Chaebee's favor.

© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.