Full Maritime Blockade on Iran... Will It Shake the U.S.-China Summit?

There are growing observations that U.S. President Donald Trump's maritime blockade against Iran could become a significant variable that shakes U.S.-China relations ahead of their summit next month. Since the Iran war, China has persistently demanded that its vessels be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to predictions that if the United States blocks ship passage, China's level of involvement in the conflict could increase.

Last October at Busan Gimhae Air Base, U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping are shaking hands after completing the U.S.-China summit. On the 12th, there were observations that President Trump's maritime blockade against Iran will become a major variable shaking the U.S.-China relationship. Photo by Yonhap News

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On the 12th (local time), the Los Angeles Times reported that a full-scale U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be a "dangerous choice" that increases the risk of conflict with China. According to the newspaper's analysis, the blockade could provide China with justification to intervene more directly.

About 50% of China's crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, China has continuously demanded the safe passage of its vessels. Late last month, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that, after coordinating with Iran, three Chinese ships had passed through the strait. It was reported that among these was a container ship belonging to China COSCO Shipping, the state-run shipping company and the world's fourth-largest container shipping line.

President Trump's maritime blockade has placed new pressure on the Chinese government. President Trump declared that all vessels that pay "illegal passage fees" to the Iranian side would also be subject to sanctions. Iran is known to have charged a passage fee of approximately 2 million dollars (based on the yuan) for some Chinese and Indian vessels in exchange for allowing passage. Subsequently, ships owned by France and Japan also crossed the strait one after another.

The South China Morning Post (SCMP), a Hong Kong daily, cited experts in evaluating that these measures "risk deepening the global crisis and making relations with Beijing even more complicated ahead of the U.S.-China summit next month." Osamah Khalil, a professor at Syracuse University, warned that "the blockade of Hormuz not only fails to provide stability to maritime insurers or shipping companies, but could also put the U.S. Navy in a potential state of conflict with Iran, Yemen's Houthi rebels, and the navies of countries such as China and Russia."

The potential instability in U.S.-China relations is not limited to the Strait of Hormuz. Amid allegations that China has provided military support to Iran behind the scenes, President Trump's warning that he would impose tariffs of up to 50% on military support has also contributed to heightened tensions.

The New York Times reported on the 11th that U.S. intelligence agencies recently obtained information indicating that China may have supplied man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) to Iran. Citing intelligence sources, CNN also noted signs that China is attempting to transport these missiles to Iran via third countries.

Amid questions about possible Chinese backing for Iranian weapons, President Trump also issued a warning. In a phone interview with Fox News that day, President Trump was asked whether his pledge to impose a 50% tariff on countries sending war supplies to Iran was directed at China, to which he replied, "Yes. Other countries are included as well." However, the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. strongly denied claims of Chinese missile support to Iran, stating, "We have never provided weapons to either party involved in the conflict."

President Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing, China, from May 14 for two days for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This will be the first visit to China by a sitting U.S. president in more than eight years, since President Trump’s first term in November 2017. The visit was originally planned for late April, but was postponed once due to the prolonged U.S.-Iran war.

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