'Runoff Race in Flux': Min Hyungbae Leads as Kim Youngrok Mounts Fierce Pursuit

The race to become the preliminary candidate for the unified Gwangju and Jeonnam special mayor from the Democratic Party of Korea, now narrowed down to Youngrok Kim and Hyungbae Min, is seeing significant volatility. Although Min had consistently been in the lead, recent trends in public opinion show Kim rapidly closing the gap.

Recent trends in public opinion indicate a clear inflection point between the two candidates.

Min Hyungbae and Kim Youngrok, prospective candidates for the Jeonnam Gwangju integrated mayor.

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According to a poll commissioned by Mudung Ilbo, Newsis Gwangju-Jeonnam News Bureau, and Gwangju MBC, and conducted by Korea Research International on April 6-7 (results released on April 8), Hyungbae Min received 42% support, while Youngrok Kim garnered 30%, showing a lead for Min outside the margin of error. In particular, among Democratic Party supporters, Min recorded 46%, 14 percentage points ahead of Kim (32%), cementing his solid support base within the party.

However, in a more recent survey conducted just two days before the runoff, the situation changed significantly.

According to a survey conducted by Realmeter at the request of 'The Leaders', an online media outlet founded by former Gwangju journalists, on April 9-10 (results released on April 10), Min received 43.9%, while Kim garnered 39.3%, narrowing the gap to just 4.6 percentage points-well within the margin of error and indicating an extremely close contest.

This is noteworthy not simply as a fluctuation in the polls, but because it demonstrates a dual dynamic: a decline in the frontrunner’s support and a surge from the challenger.

An official from the political sector commented, "This is a sign that a small crack is appearing in Hyungbae Min’s dominant position." He also drew attention to the so-called 'Shinjeong Hoon convention effect', referring to the recent official endorsement of Youngrok Kim by Shinjeong Hoon, another preliminary candidate.

The three heavyweight politicians-Youngrok Kim, Hyungbae Min, and Shinjeong Hoon-had previously engaged in an intense race throughout the selection process for the unified Gwangju and Jeonnam special mayor candidate.

In particular, Assemblyman Shin had intensified his criticism of Kim, raising issues such as Kim’s residency in Seoul and critiquing various policies during Kim’s seven-year tenure as governor. Shin’s attacks were so fierce that he was regarded as Kim’s main adversary.

After Shin was eliminated from the final candidate pool, many key members from his camp, including former Damyang County governor Choi Hyungsik, moved to support Min, suggesting a continuation of the 'Shin-Kim' conflict structure.

Min’s camp also actively publicized the migration of Shin’s supporters to their side through press releases and official channels, further stoking the flames of the rivalry.

However, as Shin posted a statement on his blog on April 9 saying, "After much deliberation, I have decided to support Youngrok Kim," this atmosphere gradually began to cool down.

This was especially significant as it came the day after Kim received a poll result showing a lead over Min outside the margin of error.

Shin directed sharp criticism at Min, referencing the 'misleading bar graph controversy over vote percentages' and allegations of 'inducing strategic voting by Kangi Jeong supporters', stating that he had "serious doubts about transparency and morality." Many observers see Shin’s dramatic change of stance as the trigger for this shift in public opinion.

There is cautious speculation that this will influence undecided voters in the final runoff, which will be held from April 12 to 14, with the results determined by combining 50% from party member delegates and 50% from randomly selected voters.

A local political figure stated, "Right now, trends matter more than figures. With the simultaneous emergence of three factors-narrowing gaps, regional balance, and persistent undecided voters-this can be seen as a classic stage just before a 'dead cross'." He added, "The outcome will likely be determined by the direction of the last-minute votes in the three-day runoff beginning April 12."

Meanwhile, the detailed results of the two polls cited in this article can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

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