"It Was China"... Iran Ceasefire Backed by Breaking the Non-Intervention Principle

There are observations suggesting that Iran’s appearance at the ceasefire negotiation table with the United States was influenced by China’s promise of a "security guarantee." China’s break from its traditional non-intervention principle is interpreted as an attempt to expand its influence over the Middle East order.

Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed Kenyan President William Ruto in Beijing on the 24th. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

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According to Bloomberg News on April 9 (local time), Pakistani officials stated that China has stepped in not just as a mediator, but as a "guarantor" for this ceasefire. Reportedly, this includes a promise to guarantee the safety of Iran’s leadership throughout the negotiation process.

Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, Iran’s special envoy to China, also told reporters on April 8, "We hope that various parties will guarantee that the United States will not restart the war." He referred to China and Russia as "major powers" and urged them, as well as the United Nations Security Council and other mediators, to cooperate in ensuring peace.

However, Chinese experts have analyzed that it is unlikely China will provide a security guarantee for Iran. Zhao Tong, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated, "It is hard to imagine China providing Iran with a clear security guarantee," explaining that this would require China to risk the possibility of military conflict with the United States. Zhou Bo, a researcher at Tsinghua University, also told the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that "it is unlikely China will act as a security guarantor for Iran," and added that the current discussions are closer to an international monitoring and supervisory mechanism.

Instead, there are analyses suggesting that China may offer economic support or help rebuild Iran’s defense capabilities, such as missile fuel. During the early stages of the war, on March 8, two vessels belonging to Iran’s state shipping company were spotted fully loaded at a Chinese chemical storage port, heading toward Iran, according to the Washington Post (WP).

This ceasefire is likely to further strengthen the relationship between China and Iran. Reports indicate that Iran is considering collecting transit fees from these ships in yuan and virtual assets. The Arab media outlet Al Jazeera highlighted this, stating that "Iran and China are challenging dollar hegemony," noting that the two countries share common interests.

Some observers have analyzed that, by acting as a mediator for the ceasefire, China has gained a favorable position ahead of the upcoming summit with the United States. President Donald Trump will visit Beijing for two days on May 14-15. It will be the first visit by a sitting U.S. president to China in about eight years, since President Trump’s first term in November 2017. The visit was initially scheduled for late April, but was postponed once due to the prolonged U.S.-Iran war.

Bloomberg News pointed out that "China has neither officially confirmed nor denied its decisive role, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has yet to make any public comments on the matter," adding, "However, this intervention demonstrates China’s ability to maintain relationships with Iran, Middle Eastern countries, and the Trump Administration, and is seen as a shift away from the traditional principle of 'non-intervention.'"

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