by Lee Hyunwoo
Published 07 Apr.2026 09:15(KST)
Despite Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran, recent analysis has found that an average of 15 vessels per day are still passing through the strait.
According to CNBC on April 6 (local time), market analysis firm Citrini Research stated in a report distributed to its paid newsletter subscribers the previous day that the daily traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased to around 15 vessels in recent days.
Although this figure remains far below the pre-war normal of 130 to 140 vessels per day, Citrini noted that some ships are still making the passage despite Iran’s blockade. Citrini explained, “Every day, four to five oil tankers pass through the strait with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) completely turned off,” adding, “The actual number of vessel movements is higher than the data suggests, and this trend has accelerated in recent days.”
Citrini went on to say, “If the disruption in (oil and gas) supply continues for a longer period, a permanent risk premium could become the new normal,” but also projected, “There is a possibility that vessel traffic could recover to 50% of pre-war levels within four to six weeks.” Citrini explained that, for the report, it dispatched an analyst to Oman to interview fishermen, smugglers, and local officials.
However, CNBC pointed out the limitations of this analysis. CNBC stated, “It should be noted that Citrini’s analysis is based on a single analyst’s on-site visit and interview testimonies that are difficult to cross-verify.”
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