"So Much for a Buying Opportunity"...Bitcoin Faces 2029 'Major Crash' Warning

Google has projected that quantum computers could undermine the security of Bitcoin and other digital assets by 2029, raising warnings about a potential sharp drop in Bitcoin prices.

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Forbes reported on April 3 (local time) that "about 6.7 million Bitcoins, accounting for roughly 32% of all Bitcoins mined so far, are held in addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks," and presented this outlook.

The report continued, "If a quantum breakthrough occurs before a protocol upgrade is implemented, large-scale selling pressure could arise from exposed wallets, causing prices to collapse significantly from current levels." However, it also noted, "the recent weakness in prices reflects not only the quantum computer issue but also macroeconomic factors such as the Iran conflict and expectations of a rate hike in Japan."

It further stated that "the short-term price impact may be limited," but also warned that "if responses are delayed, the risk could increase," signaling the possibility of a steep price drop. The report mentioned that Coinbase, led by its CEO, has initiated discussions on how to respond, adding that "if proactive security upgrades are implemented, confidence in Bitcoin's long-term viability could be strengthened."

Previously, Google's Quantum AI team stated in a blog post and white paper published on March 30 that the computational power needed to break Bitcoin encryption may be lower than previously thought, suggesting that the quantum threat to Bitcoin is approaching. Google predicted that so-called 'Q-Day (the point at which quantum computers can break existing encryption systems)' could arrive as early as 2029.

According to Google's model, an attacker could prepare some calculations in advance and, once a transaction occurs, complete the attack in about nine minutes. Given that the average Bitcoin transaction confirmation time is 10 minutes, the probability of the attacker intercepting funds before the original transaction is confirmed is about 41%.

Laura Shin, host of the podcast 'Unchained,' pointed out that with a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, the so-called 'nine-minute attack window' could allow the private key to be derived from the public key exposed during the transaction process, enabling funds to be stolen before the next block is confirmed.

However, the market perceives this as more of a mid-term risk than an immediate crisis. Some observers expressed optimism, noting the industry's swift response.

The outlet stated, "The fact that Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, is personally involved and mobilizing Coinbase's developer resources to devise countermeasures shows that the digital asset industry is taking this issue seriously before it becomes a critical threat." It added, "From an optimistic perspective, such proactive (security enhancement) responses could ultimately strengthen trust in Bitcoin's long-term viability."

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