[Black-and-White Cooking Robot]④Will Humanoids Invade the Kitchen, Triggering an "AI Moment"?

Jasper, an artificial intelligence (AI) writing startup that achieved unicorn status (with a valuation of over 1 trillion won) in 2023, quickly lost its competitive edge after the emergence of ChatGPT-4 and carried out large-scale layoffs. Similarly, the online education platform Chegg experienced the so-called "ChatGPT shock" when its CEO admitted that ChatGPT was hindering the company’s growth. As a result, Chegg’s stock price plummeted by 48% in a single day on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Startups that had survived by focusing on specialized functions found themselves rendered powerless in the face of general-purpose AI.

General-purpose AI is thus reshaping market structures. The changes in the translation and interpretation market are a prime example. Numerous startups formed fragmented markets by offering specialized services in natural language processing fields such as translation and summarization, but the arrival of general-purpose AI radically shifted the landscape. As general-purpose AI began handling all tasks at once, the differentiation of services specializing in individual functions began to fade.

Figure 02 is performing work at the BMW plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina, USA. BMW Group

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'Could the same thing happen in the cooking robot industry?'

The catalyst for these thoughts is the humanoid robot. If a single humanoid robot can be deployed in a kitchen to transport ingredients and handle cooking utensils, what will become of today’s single-purpose cooking robots? Just as ChatGPT rendered function-specific startups obsolete by encompassing translation, summarization, and other features, there are questions about whether humanoids-if they can fry, grill, and stir-fry-could make single-purpose cooking robots redundant.

Bipedal humanoids, which until a few years ago were confined to the realm of science fiction, are now being introduced into reality. Figure AI’s "Figure 02" is already working ten-hour shifts at automobile factories and, if needed, can work up to 20 hours. In China, which declared last year the "Year of the Humanoid," more than 140 companies now have completed humanoid models, and the number of robots unveiled by these companies has surpassed 330.

Optimus robots deployed at the Tesla factory. Tesla

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However, many in the field believe that the advent of general-purpose humanoids is unlikely to bring a "ChatGPT moment" to the cooking robot market. Cooking robots have a physical presence and require physical optimization for space and workflow. While software can be distributed worldwide via a single API in just one day, hardware must overcome physical barriers such as manufacturing, shipping, installation, and certification.

The challenging kitchen environment also needs to be taken into account. Kitchens have slippery floors due to oil splatters, and are filled with heat and steam. In these cramped spaces, a minimal number of people optimize their movement efficiently without prompts. This is why industry insiders often say, "The kitchen will be the last environment for humanoids to penetrate."

The high cost of humanoids, which can exceed tens of millions of won, is another barrier. Jeong Hyunjun, Director of the Artificial Intelligence Robot Research Division at the Korea Institute of Robot and Convergence, stated, "The production cost of humanoid robots is still very high, and achieving economic viability must come first." He added, "When introducing humanoids into kitchens, safety issues such as malfunctions are also a significant concern."

Industry insiders in the cooking robot sector emphasize the need to consider the sensory aspects of "cooking." Jaehoon Choi, Investment Manager at LB Investment, said, "Cooking is not just about sight; it involves all five senses, including smell and temperature detection. Approaching cooking-specialized robots purely from a technological perspective is not enough."

The situation could change if the production of humanoids becomes vertically integrated. The drone market used to be a battlefield for startups combining various components, but China’s DJI, which vertically integrated parts like motors and sensors, released ultra-low-cost drones and captured 80% of the market.

Jungsoo Song, CEO of Leapids, commented, "In the domestic cooking robot market, many companies already sell by combining existing technologies and components with user-friendly interfaces (UIs) or applications (apps). This is a limitation of the domestic food and beverage (F&B) robotics sector." He added, "Ultimately, to achieve economies of scale, vertical integration based on proprietary technology is necessary," and concluded, "The company that does this best will likely dominate the cooking robot market."

China’s leading humanoid figure, Wang Xingsing, founder of Unitree, is also a former DJI employee. He is applying DJI’s strategy directly to the robotics market. While some analyses suggest that actuators account for over 40% of the production cost in simplified robot models, no domestic company currently manufactures them in-house. This is why there are concerns that if low-cost, mass-produced humanoids appear, they could instantly absorb entire specialized service robot markets.

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This is why the "application" of technology, beyond technological competitiveness itself, is becoming more important. Humanoids cannot replace all cooking robots. Just as washing machines and refrigerators remain, there could be specialized equipment that is more economical than humanoids for repetitive tasks such as grilling. Even in Figure AI’s automobile plant, humanoids transport and stack parts, but welding is still done by industrial robots.

Equipment that is more economical than humanoids resembles home appliances. Equipment bolted into kitchens, responsible for mass, high-speed, high-temperature cooking, is unlikely to be replaced-much like refrigerators and washing machines in homes. CEO Song stated, "Robots that are closer to 'automated equipment'-which can be made faster, more efficiently, and more cheaply-will likely survive even after humanoids are introduced. This is because it may be more efficient for humanoids to control and coordinate these robots."

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Cooking robots similar to home appliances can also benefit small business owners. In the early stages of humanoid adoption, it is likely that large franchises with significant capital will introduce humanoids first. The technological gap between franchises that have humanoids and small businesses that do not could exacerbate income disparities through cost savings. Just as dishwashers transitioned from luxury goods to essential home appliances, improving the efficiency of household chores, affordable cooking robots can contribute to improved productivity in small establishments.

Hyunki Jeong, CEO of Beyond Honeycomb, remarked, "Ultimately, the way cooking robots evolve and establish their position will be determined naturally in the market as products are released and chosen by consumers."

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