Russia Profits from Iran War: "Earning Up to $150 Million More Per Day from Oil Sales"

It is estimated that Russia is earning up to $150 million in additional daily revenue from crude oil sales. With the Strait of Hormuz now blocked, demand for Russian oil from India and China has surged, leading analysts to conclude that Russia has become the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war.

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The Financial Times (FT) reported on the 12th (local time) that the Russian government is expected to earn a total of $3.3 billion to $4.9 billion in additional revenue by the end of this month. This estimate assumes that the price of Russian Urals crude oil remains between $70 and $80 per barrel on average. Over the past two months, the average price was about $52 per barrel.

FT reported, "Up until the Iran war, the Russian government was struggling due to falling oil prices and weak sales to India, but its fortunes have now seen a dramatic turnaround." Russia's sales to India had previously declined under pressure from the Donald Trump administration in the United States. According to last month's report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the same day, Russia's exports of crude oil and related products fell sharply by 11.4% to 6.6 million barrels per day, marking the lowest level since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Currently, a significant volume of Russian crude oil is still at sea. According to cargo tracking data from analytics firm Kpler, these shipments are crossing the Indian Ocean bound for Indian ports. As of the 11th, India was importing 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude, up 50% from the beginning of last month. Sumit Ratholia, lead analyst at Kpler, said, "If the current shipping schedule, market information, and cargo movements continue, total Russian crude arrivals in India this month could approach 2 million barrels per day," adding, "Russia is the big winner in this conflict."

Sergey Bakurenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center, noted, "Every $10 increase in the average monthly oil price generates an extra $2.8 billion in revenue for Russian oil exporters, of which $1.63 billion is returned to the state via taxes." This roughly translates to an increase of $54 million per day in government budget revenue. This means that during the 12 days of the war, the government could have received an additional $110 million to $160 million per day, totaling $1.3 billion to $1.9 billion. If current conditions persist, Russia could secure an additional $3.3 billion to $5 billion over the course of a month.

In addition, the United States is relaxing sanctions on Russian oil. The Kremlin announced on the 10th that there was a "very productive conversation" between President Putin and President Trump during a phone call. President Trump stated, "We are imposing sanctions on some countries, but these sanctions will be lifted until the (Hormuz) Strait returns to normal."

Borys Dodonov, head of energy and climate research at Kyiv National Economic University, said, "This will help Russia achieve its quarterly budget targets and even start saving funds."

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