[Good Morning Market] Mixed US Stocks on Conflicting Hormuz Strait Statements... Ongoing Bargain Buying Incentive in Korea

While the surge in oil prices following the US-Iran war has subsided, the New York stock market ended mixed as statements from US government officials regarding the Strait of Hormuz were inconsistent. On March 11, the domestic stock market is expected to show an upward trend, driven by ongoing demand for bargain buying and the effects of shareholder return policies announced by major companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK.

On March 10 (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 index closed at 6,781.48, down 0.21% from the previous session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 0.07% at 47,706.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which is heavily weighted toward technology stocks, closed up 0.01% at 22,697.1.

In the early part of the session, US stocks rose on expectations of an end to the war and oil prices falling into the $80 range. However, as US government officials made conflicting statements regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz, oil price volatility expanded again, erasing earlier gains.

For further recovery in the stock market after the latest decline in oil prices, the key issue is whether ships can continue to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. While a US Department of Energy official stated that tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz had been successfully escorted, the White House commented that it had not yet received such a report, highlighting the conflicting positions among US government officials. Additionally, it was reported that Iran showed signs of attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, which is another factor contributing to oil price volatility.

On the 9th, as the KOSPI dropped more than 6% during the session triggering a sell-side circuit breaker, employees are monitoring the stock market and exchange rates in the dealing room at the Seoul headquarters of Hana Bank. On that day, the KOSPI opened at 5265.37, down 319.50 points (5.72%) from the previous trading day on the 9th, and the KOSDAQ started at 1096.48, down 58.19 points (5.04%). March 9, 2026 Photo by Yongjun Cho

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Although oil price volatility is expected to persist for the time being, the market consensus is that the likelihood of another sharp stock market drop due to a renewed surge in oil prices should be considered low, given the strong determination and capacity of the US to stabilize oil prices and end the war quickly (such as naval escort operations and potential removal of Iranian mines).

Market participants are closely watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, which is scheduled to be released tonight. It is expected to show mid-to-high 2% range inflation, similar to last month. Since the February CPI is typically the last inflation gauge confirmed before the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, its importance is heightened. However, due to volatility in oil prices, including recent surges, concerns may grow about the need to check the March CPI for additional confirmation.

Despite the mixed performance of the US stock market, the domestic market is expected to remain at least neutral or better, supported by the strong performance of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index-driven by companies such as Micron and SanDisk-ongoing bargain buying, and the effects of shareholder return policy announcements from major companies like Samsung Electronics and SK.

The market also notes that Oracle, which announced its earnings after the US market closed, posted a quarterly revenue and net profit surprise. Ji Young Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "Oracle, which is at the center of US artificial intelligence (AI) profitability and concerns in the private equity market, alleviated related anxieties by stating in the latest conference call that it will not issue additional bonds for the remainder of this year." He added, "Considering Oracle is currently trading up by over 8% after hours, it is expected that a favorable environment for foreign investment in semiconductor stocks will develop in the domestic market as well."

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