Trump Floats 'Self-Declared End to War'... Will Iran's 'Horizontal Escalation' Strategy Tie His Hands? [U.S.-Iran War]

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President Donald Trump's intentions have emerged as a key exit strategy in the war with Iran. Although President Trump said the previous day that "the war seems to be coming to an end," Iran responded strongly, increasing skepticism in the markets. In response, the White House added the premise that the war can be ended when the Commander-in-Chief (President Trump) determines that military objectives have been fully achieved, regardless of whether Iran formally surrenders. Analysts suggest that, given the upcoming midterm elections in November and Iran's determination to fight to the end, these remarks are intended to allow flexibility regarding the timing of ending the war.

Caroline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, is engaging in a Q&A session with reporters in the White House briefing room on the 19th (local time). Photo by Yonhap News Agency

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White House spokesperson Caroline Leavitt stated in a briefing on the 10th (local time) that, regarding the timeline for ending military operations, "It will end when the Commander-in-Chief (President Trump) determines that military objectives have been fully achieved, and when it is determined that Iran, regardless of its own declaration, has reached a state of complete and unconditional surrender."

When asked whether President Trump still wants Iran's "unconditional surrender," Leavitt replied, "When the President says Iran is in a position to unconditionally surrender, he is not claiming that the Iranian regime will actually declare it." This means that even without an official surrender from Iran, the United States can declare victory. It also implies that President Trump has the authority to set the timeline for ending the operation. This statement contradicts his earlier remark on the 6th, when he said, "There will be no negotiations without unconditional surrender."

The New York Times (NYT) reported on the White House briefing, stating, "The possibilities for how and when the conflict with Iran will end remain wide open," adding, "Officials in the Trump administration are once again seeking to reassure the American public that they will not become embroiled in another prolonged war in the Middle East."

Following the airstrikes, the economic fallout has intensified, with international oil prices surging and stock market volatility increasing, leading to a significant deterioration in public opinion within the United States. According to an emergency poll conducted immediately after the outbreak of the conflict by a foreign news outlet and Ipsos, only 27% of respondents supported the U.S. attack on Iran. This contrasts with a CNN poll conducted with SSRS from the 28th of last month to the 1st of this month, in which 41% of 1,004 American adults surveyed supported the airstrikes.

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However, Iran's backlash has been intense. Citing sources familiar with U.S. intelligence, CNN reported that Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. CBS also confirmed the same information, citing anonymous U.S. officials. The previous day, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran declared, "We are the ones who will decide when the war ends," and warned, "If attacks by the U.S. and Israel continue, not a single liter of oil will be allowed to be exported from this region (the Strait of Hormuz)."

Israel's public broadcaster Kan reported that senior Israeli government officials and security authorities have projected that it could take up to a year for the Iranian regime to fully collapse. After a recent security briefing, Israeli cabinet members stated, "While the ongoing joint military operation between the U.S. and Israel is expected to conclude soon, it will take more time for the regime to completely fall."

Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group (ICG), stated, "It is unimaginable for Mojtaba Khamenei, whose entire family was wiped out, to negotiate with President Trump." He added, "Even if the gunfire stops, stability will not be achieved," explaining that if hostilities subside temporarily, Iran is highly likely to begin developing nuclear weapons.

Robert A. Pape, professor of political science at the University of Chicago, commented, "Iran's attacks cannot be dismissed as mere sporadic acts of retaliation or the desperate acts of a collapsing regime. Rather, they should be interpreted as a horizontal escalation strategy-an attempt to expand the scope and duration of the conflict to change the dynamics." Professor Pape pointed out, "This strategy has previously worked against the United States. In Vietnam and Serbia, America's adversaries responded to overwhelming U.S. air power by pursuing horizontal escalation, which ultimately resulted in defeat for the United States in Vietnam, and in Serbia, thwarted U.S. war objectives and triggered the worst ethnic cleansing in Europe since World War II."

This means that even if the United States declares an end to the war, if Iran's new leadership continues to resist or maintains the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, military tensions are likely to persist.

Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said, "The longer this war of attrition drags on, the more Iran will believe it can continue to inflict damage on the United States. Considering Iran's territorial size, military capability, and institutional structure, achieving a decisive victory against Iran will be difficult."

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