Korea's Quarterfinal Scenario: Must Beat Australia by 5 or More Runs, Allow 2 or Fewer

My mind is in turmoil. The worst-case scenario has become reality.

In the end, Korea was held back by Taiwan and now faces a situation where all possible outcomes must be considered. On March 8, at the Tokyo Dome in Japan, the Korean national baseball team led by manager Ryu Ji-hyun lost 4-5 to Taiwan in the third match of the World Baseball Classic (WBC) Group C round-robin. The score was tied 4-4 through nine innings, but in the top of the 10th, with runners on first and third and no outs in the extra-inning tiebreaker, Taiwan's Chang Chih-Yu executed a squeeze bunt that brought in the winning run.

In this group round-robin, Korea recorded one win and two losses, having defeated the Czech Republic (11-4 win) but then losing to Japan (6-8 loss) and Taiwan. After two straight losses, Taiwan earned two consecutive wins. With Australia, who lost to Japan earlier in the day 3-4, now at two wins and one loss, the three teams are now competing for a spot in the quarterfinals. Japan, with three wins, is ranked first in Group C. Australia is second, Taiwan third, Korea fourth, and the Czech Republic (with three losses) is fifth. Japan has advanced to the quarterfinal tournament, while the Czech Republic has failed to qualify for the main round.

Korean players show disappointed expressions after losing 4-5 in the third group stage match of WBC Group C against Taiwan. Tokyo=Yonhap News Photo

원본보기 아이콘

Korea and Australia will play their fourth Group C round-robin match at the same venue at 7 p.m. on March 9. Korea still has hope. If Korea defeats Australia by a margin of five or more runs, while allowing two runs or fewer, they will be able to secure a ticket to the United States for the next round.

If Korea beats Australia, then Korea, Australia, and Taiwan will each have two wins and two losses. According to WBC rules, the top two teams in each group by winning percentage advance to the quarterfinals. If there is a tie in winning percentage, the head-to-head records are used as the tiebreaker. If Korea beats Australia, the three teams-Korea, Australia, and Taiwan-will be locked in a circular tie. In this scenario, the head-to-head records cannot determine which teams advance to the next round.

In this case, the team that allows the fewest runs per out recorded-known as the 'fewest runs allowed per out ratio'-will advance. Only the games played among the tied teams are considered for runs and outs. In these matchups: Taiwan allowed 7 runs over 18 innings against Korea and Australia combined; Korea allowed 5 runs over 10 innings against Taiwan; Australia allowed no runs over 9 innings against Taiwan.

For Korea to advance to the second round over Taiwan and Australia, they must win the game against Australia by at least five runs in a nine-inning game. However, if Korea allows three or more runs to Australia, their run-allowed ratio will fall behind Taiwan's. In summary, if Korea defeats Australia in a nine-inning game by at least five runs while allowing two runs or fewer, they can advance to the second round.

© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.