Why Iran Calls Its Supreme Leader Killed in US Airstrikes a 'Martyr' [Current Affairs Show]

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'Soh Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'

■ Host: Political Specialist Soh Jongseop

■ Director: PD Ma Yena

■ Guest: Reporter Lee Hyunwoo

Following the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 (local time), the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has begun to be commemorated as a "martyr" in Iran, drawing attention to the underlying reasons. This is closely related to Iran's unique "theocracy" system, under which, since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, all Supreme Leaders have been chosen exclusively from among the highest-ranking Shiite clerics.

AP Yonhap News

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The reason the Iranian Supreme Leader was killed in an explosion right after the launch of the U.S. military operation against Iran is being attributed to the decisive role of military artificial intelligence (AI). Although numerous agents from both intelligence agencies were dispatched to track Khamenei's movements, it took considerable time to pinpoint his exact location amid thousands of conflicting pieces of information. During this process, AI succeeded in analyzing massive amounts of data in a short period and accurately identifying the most likely locations.

The U.S. and Israeli military forces agreed to strike all of the key locations identified by AI simultaneously, and they also broadly tracked the movements of Iran's top leadership to designate them as targets. More than 1,000 targets in major Iranian cities were struck at the same time.

This operation was unusual, as it was carried out in the morning hours-unlike typical military operations, which usually take place at night to avoid enemy air defenses. Over 200 fighter jets launched at 7:30 a.m. local time, and from 9:40 a.m. simultaneous attacks were carried out across Iran.

Caught off guard by the unexpected morning assault, Iran's top leadership, who were in a meeting in downtown Tehran, were unable to respond adequately, resulting in devastating losses. The U.S. military announced that six American soldiers were killed in the airstrikes, but the exact scale of Iranian casualties has not yet been tallied. It is known that 40 to 50 high-ranking officials, including the Supreme Leader Khamenei, were killed in explosions, and the total number of casualties is estimated to exceed at least 700 to 1,000.

AP Yonhap News

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Within Iran, Khamenei's death is described as "martyrdom"-an honorific rarely used for ordinary leaders or politicians. To understand this, one must look at Iran's unique theocratic system and Khamenei's special status within it.

Iran has a dual power structure, where a government led by a democratically elected president coexists with a theocratic system led by the Supreme Leader. The president is elected directly by the people, serves a four-year term, and may be re-elected once. However, the president is the head of government, not the head of state. The head of state is the Supreme Leader, known in Persian as "Rahbar."

The Supreme Leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts, an institution comprising 88 eminent Shiite clerics from across Iran, who themselves are elected by popular vote. In other words, the people elect 88 clerics, and these clerics then select the Supreme Leader through an indirect election process. Candidates for Supreme Leader must be high-ranking Shiite clerics, and the position is a lifetime appointment with no term limit.

Khamenei was chosen through the second Assembly of Experts convened after the death of the first Supreme Leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1989, and effectively ruled Iran for 37 years. In 1994, he received the title "Ayatollah," the highest Shiite clerical rank, and was thereafter known as "Ayatollah Khamenei." Originally a low-ranking cleric from a rural area of Iran, he participated in Khomeini's Islamic revolutionary movement during the Pahlavi dynasty, was imprisoned and tortured, and rose to the highest position following the revolution's success.

The Supreme Leader may intervene directly in state affairs if desired and controls the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a paramilitary force separate from the regular military. The IRGC, which operates special forces as well as missile and drone units, is a key military asset and has often clashed with the regular army due to its larger budget allocation.

AP Yonhap News

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Following Khamenei's death, internal conflicts have surfaced in Iran over the succession. The most prominent candidate is Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba Khamenei. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a strong supporter of Mojtaba, and it is said that under Khamenei's 37-year rule, the IRGC has effectively become a private force for his family. Hardliners within the IRGC have declared Khamenei's death to be "martyrdom" and are calling for a protracted struggle.

However, under the principles of Iran's theocracy, hereditary succession from father to son is prohibited. The first Supreme Leader Khomeini, who valued integrity and principle, passed his succession not to his own son but to then-president Khamenei. Cautious voices warn that the extreme crisis facing Iran could undermine these principles. There are also concerns that if Mojtaba is immediately promoted as the next leader, he could become a target for the U.S. and Israel, and thus should not be put forward hastily.

U.S. President Donald Trump has responded with hardline remarks, stating, "Whoever it is, the result is death." The United States is reportedly considering supporting the Kurdish independence movement in western Iran to disperse the IRGC's forces, as well as backing dissidents within Iran to incite popular uprisings-part of a multifaceted strategy to ramp up pressure on Iran.

AP Yonhap News

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President Trump has stated that U.S. military operations in Iran will last at least four to five weeks. However, there is widespread skepticism among American academia and military experts about the possibility of ground warfare or a prolonged conflict.

During the Iraq War in 2003, the U.S. deployed six aircraft carriers and 150,000 ground troops. At that time, Iraq's population was about 30 million, while Iran's territory is four times larger than Iraq's, and its population is more than three times as large. Only two aircraft carrier strike groups and about 50,000 troops have been deployed for the current operation in Iran, which is less than one-third the force used in Iraq. Many point out that it is virtually impossible to sustain a ground or prolonged war with these numbers.

Given these factors, most analysts interpret President Trump's hardline rhetoric as a pressure tactic to bring Iran to the negotiating table. The U.S. is employing a multifaceted strategy, simultaneously applying various forms of pressure on Iran while seeking to influence the emergence of a preferred successor. Meanwhile, strong anti-war sentiment in the United States is also becoming a burden for President Trump.

The rapid destabilization of Iran and the Middle East is having a significant impact on the global economy and oil prices, and it is inevitable that South Korea's economy will also be directly and indirectly affected. The Korean government has entered an emergency crisis management system and is closely monitoring the situation as it develops.

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