Iran Faces at Least 15.7 Billion Won Loss if Withdrawing from World Cup Following Khamenei's Death

If Iran withdraws from the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North and Central America due to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, it is expected to face significant economic losses, along with uncertainty regarding its participation in the next World Cup qualifiers.

According to the Associated Press (AP) on the 3rd (Korea Standard Time), "With the Middle East conflict intensifying, triggered by the US, one of the co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, Iran's national team participation has become uncertain, just about three months ahead of the tournament's opening." The report added, "If Iran withdraws from the finals, it will have to endure substantial economic damage and also risk severe penalties, including possible exclusion from the next World Cup qualifiers."

On February 28, the United States and Israel carried out an airstrike on Iran, eliminating Supreme Leader Khamenei and dozens of high-ranking officials. After the attack, Mehdi Taj, President of the Iran Football Federation, said, "What is certain is that after this attack, we can no longer look forward to the World Cup with hope," effectively suggesting the possibility of Iran withdrawing from the tournament.

Iran secured its spot in the finals by finishing first in Group A of the third round of the Asian qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup in North and Central America, with a record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. According to the group draw, Iran was placed in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, and is scheduled to play all three group stage matches in the United States.

On the 3rd (local time), near the US Embassy in Rome, Italy, Iranian citizens held a protest carrying photos of the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Iranian flag. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

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If Iran withdraws from the World Cup, it will have to accept significant economic losses.

FIFA provides each of the 48 teams in the World Cup finals with USD 1.5 million as a "preparation cost reimbursement," and awards USD 9 million to each of the 16 teams eliminated in the group stage. If Iran withdraws, it will lose the opportunity to receive at least USD 10.5 million (approximately KRW 1.52 billion).

In addition, according to FIFA regulations, if a team withdraws more than 30 days before the tournament starts, a minimum fine of 250,000 Swiss francs (approximately KRW 470 million) is imposed; if the withdrawal occurs within 30 days of the opening, the minimum fine increases to 500,000 Swiss francs. As a result, if Iran withdraws, it stands to lose at least KRW 15.7 billion, and faces the serious risk of being restricted from participating in the qualifiers for the 2030 World Cup.

The Associated Press (AP) reported that if Iran pulls out, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), both members of the Asian Football Confederation, are considered the leading candidates to take its place. The two countries ranked 9th and 10th, respectively, in the Asian qualifiers.

Iraq secured a spot in the intercontinental playoff by defeating the UAE in the fifth round of the North and Central America World Cup qualifiers, and is scheduled to compete for a ticket to the finals in a single match against either Bolivia or Suriname on the 31st (local time).

However, FIFA regulations only state that "a team that withdraws may be replaced by a team belonging to another association," and do not specify that the replacement must be from the same continental confederation, leaving room for debate over how the situation will be handled going forward.

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