Medical School Bar to Fall...490-Student Increase in 2027 Likely to Boost "N-Time Retakers"

The government's decision to increase medical school enrollment by an annual average of 668 students from the 2027 to the 2031 academic year is expected to reshape the college admissions landscape. The admissions industry predicts that the acceptance bar for medical schools will fall, and that there will be an increase in so-called "N-time retakers" making repeated attempts to enter medical school. In particular, since all additional seats will be filled through the "regional doctor track," some observers say a "niche market" could emerge in which students move to non-metropolitan regions to study.

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On February 11, admissions experts projected that the number of N-time retakers sitting the College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT) in the first year of regional medical school expansion, the 2027 academic year, will exceed 160,000. This would comfortably surpass the previous year's figure of 159,922.

This year's CSAT already has a structurally large number of retakers born in 2007, the Year of the Golden Pig, and it is also the last year before the integrated CSAT system begins in the 2028 academic year, so an "increase in N-time retakers" had long been anticipated. Because last year's CSAT was notoriously difficult, the number of students who failed to gain admission through regular decision increased by 6.9% year-on-year. On top of this, the new variable of the "regional doctor system" is expected to fuel a surge of N-time retakers for the 2027 CSAT.

Lim Sung-ho, CEO of Jongno Academy, said, "Some top-tier engineering students may judge that the regional doctor system has given them a chance to apply to medical school," adding, "A considerable number of current students are also likely to attempt a 'half-gap year' this year, thinking this is their last opportunity before school transcripts change from the current 9-grade scale to a 5-grade scale." He also predicted that as top-tier students peel off to apply to medical schools, other natural sciences students may pursue a "college switch."

There are also forecasts that the medical school acceptance bar will fall. The reasoning is that the impact on admissions will be significant, given that the 2027 increase in medical school seats exceeds 27% of Seoul National University's natural sciences intake. Some regional universities are projected to admit students with a school transcript ranking as low as 4.7. When medical school enrollment was increased for the 2025 academic year, the acceptance cutoff for successful applicants dropped by 0.3 of a grade, and in the Gangwon region the acceptance range for regional talent tracks fell to the 4th grade band on school transcripts.

As a result, observers expect a bifurcation of medical school cutoffs and growing demand for niche strategies that take advantage of structures favorable to regional applicants. Lee Man-ki, head of the Uway Education Evaluation Research Institute, said, "In general admission tracks, competition among the very top scorers will continue, while the regional doctor track is likely to form a relatively different cutoff," adding, "We may see a dual structure in acceptance thresholds." He further analyzed, "Given the number of test-takers, applying through regional doctor selection tracks is likely to be advantageous in almost all regions, including Gangwon."

Among parents, some are already considering transferring their children to schools outside the greater Seoul area so they can apply through the regional doctor system. One parent said, "We are thinking about moving our resident registration to places like Namyangju," and added, "If my child attends a school outside the capital region but receives private tutoring in Daechi-dong, I feel they might have a shot at getting over the medical school threshold."

According to the medical school expansion plan announced the previous day by the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the Ministry of Education, the medical school enrollment quota for the 2027 academic year will increase by 490 from the current 3,058 to 3,548. For the 2028 and 2029 academic years, 3,671 students will be admitted each year, an increase of 613. For the 2030 and 2031 academic years, a public medical school (100 students) and regional medical schools (100 students) will be established, and a total of 3,871 students will be selected annually, an increase of 813.

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