U.S. Defense Strategy Focuses on Deterring China [Yang Nakgyu's Defence Club]

Yonhap News Agency

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Elbridge Colby, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy, visited South Korea on a three-day trip starting on the 25th, immediately following the announcement of the new National Defense Strategy (NDS). As the strategy emphasizes South Korea's primary responsibility for deterring North Korea, there are expectations that the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) will accelerate. Additionally, as the U.S. military has stated it will focus on homeland defense and deterring China, there are observations that the role, composition, and even the size of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) could change.

According to government officials on the 26th, Colby, a close aide to President Donald Trump and a key figure in formulating the new National Defense Strategy, is expected to meet with senior South Korean diplomatic and security officials during his visit to explain the new strategy and seek cooperation.

The new U.S. National Defense Strategy includes the principle that "South Korea must take primary responsibility for deterring North Korea." This reaffirms the point, repeatedly emphasized by both South Korea and the U.S. in various contexts, that "South Korea will lead conventional defense."

The "Joint Fact Sheet" released last November, which summarized the outcomes of two summits between the leaders of South Korea and the United States, also mentioned cooperation on OPCON transfer, stating that "South Korea has committed to accelerating efforts to strengthen the essential military capabilities required to lead combined conventional defense against North Korea." In addition, for the first time, last month's Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) joint statement specified that "South Korea will take a leading role in conventional defense of the Korean Peninsula."

With the new U.S. National Defense Strategy emphasizing South Korea's increased responsibility for defense against North Korea, there are expectations that the OPCON transfer process will gain momentum. Operational control refers to the authority to command designated units within a limited time and space to carry out specific operations. Currently, the Chairman of the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (a four-star general) holds peacetime operational control, while the Commander of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command (a U.S. four-star general) holds wartime operational control.

The government has set a goal of completing the OPCON transfer within President Lee Jaemyung's term, by June 3, 2030. The verification process for OPCON transfer consists of three stages: Initial Operational Capability (IOC), Full Operational Capability (FOC), and Full Mission Capability (FMC). Once the FOC verification is completed this year, the process can move on to the final stage, FMC evaluation and verification. The third stage is considered to fall within the realm of political decisions by the leaders of both countries.

The new U.S. National Defense Strategy states that U.S. military forces will focus on homeland defense, encompassing North and South America, and on deterring China, emphasizing that allies in Europe, the Middle East, and the Korean Peninsula must take on greater responsibility and share of roles. As a result, it is widely anticipated that changes to USFK are inevitable. In particular, there is a strong possibility that the focus of USFK’s mission will shift from North Korea deterrence to countering China.

Attention is also being paid to how the size of USFK might be affected. U.S. defense officials, including USFK Commander Xavier Brunson, have recently emphasized that the capability of USFK is more important than its numbers. This has been interpreted as leaving open the possibility of adjusting the size of USFK. However, many also believe that, given the Korean Peninsula’s unique suitability for countering China, the size of USFK is unlikely to be reduced.

Commander Brunson also remarked in May last year that South Korea's geographic position is strategically important, describing the country as "the closest ally to Beijing" and "like an island or a fixed aircraft carrier floating between Japan and mainland China."

As for the role of USFK, further confirmation may come from Deputy Assistant Secretary Colby during his visit to South Korea. He is also scheduled to visit Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek during his three-day stay.

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