Rogoff: "The Won Is Undervalued Among Major Currencies... Likely to Appreciate Within 2-3 Years" [ASSA 2026]

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard University, stated that the Korean won is significantly undervalued and predicted a high likelihood of appreciation within the next two to three years.

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard University, spoke at the 'American Economic Association Annual Meeting (ASSA) 2026' held on the 3rd (local time) in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.

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On January 3 (local time), during a meeting with Korean journalists at the 'American Economic Association Annual Meeting (ASSA) 2026' held in Philadelphia, Rogoff said, "At present, the won appears to be one of the most undervalued major currencies in the world."

He added, "I am more confident about the undervaluation of the won than the overvaluation of the dollar," diagnosing that in the current exchange rate environment, the relative undervaluation of the won is more clearly observed than the direction of the dollar.

While acknowledging the difficulty of predicting exchange rates, Rogoff suggested the possibility of the won appreciating, based on long-term empirical rules.

He explained, "It is extremely difficult to predict exchange rates accurately, but currencies that are significantly out of line with purchasing power (at an appropriate level) tend to revert eventually. As a rule of thumb, if a currency is undervalued by about 20%, roughly half of that gap is corrected within three years."

He further noted that such adjustments typically occur gradually over several years, rather than all at once in a short period. He added, "It would actually be surprising if the won does not appreciate within the next two to three years."

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