"Fierce Power Struggle: Open Attacks on Stage... Intensifying 'HBM4 Three Kingdoms' [Chip Talk]"

The competition among the “Big Three” memory manufacturers to supply sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM), known as HBM4, to major client Nvidia is intensifying. SK Hynix, Micron Technology, and Samsung Electronics are each employing various strategies to keep each other in check. At times, their actions have turned aggressive, with provocative and direct statements being made.

Industry analysts attribute this escalating rivalry to the approaching mass production timeline for Nvidia’s next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) chip, Rubin. On September 28 (local time), Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to unveil Rubin to the public during the GTC keynote in Washington D.C., United States. Nvidia plans to begin taking orders and start mass production early next year.

It is reported that Rubin will be equipped with HBM4. As a result, Nvidia must soon decide which company’s HBM4 will be used in Rubin. While the time for a decision is drawing near, Nvidia has yet to make its choice, and all three companies remain contenders. Each has produced samples and sent them to Nvidia, awaiting a response. Depending on Nvidia’s intentions, the three companies are expected to undergo quality testing (qual test) soon.

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SK Hynix and Micron are especially prominent in their efforts to keep competitors in check, while Samsung Electronics is quietly observing the situation rather than directly responding.

Industry consensus suggests that SK Hynix’s press release on September 12, announcing the world’s first completion of HBM4 development and the establishment of a mass production system, was a strategic move to counter competitors. A semiconductor industry insider commented, “It is highly unusual to issue a press release and widely publicize the start of mass production. It is likely that SK Hynix did this to keep Micron in check.” The bold announcement of HBM4 development and mass production is seen as an attempt to shift attention away from Micron, whose stock price has been soaring recently. From March 3 to March 17 (local time), Micron’s stock price rose for 11 consecutive trading days, breaking its previous record from December 2019 by a single day. During this period, the stock price increased by 34.76%, and as of the 17th, Micron’s market capitalization reached $179.05 billion (approximately 248 trillion won). September 12 marked the peak of Micron’s rally. This surge was driven by optimistic outlooks for the HBM market and U.S. reports predicting that Nvidia would select Micron’s HBM4. SK Hynix appears to have aimed to reverse this trend. The press release highlighted the performance and features of its HBM4 without reservation, emphasizing that it meets the requirements of clients such as Nvidia. Notably, SK Hynix’s HBM4 applies 2,048 data transmission channels (I/O), doubling bandwidth, increasing power efficiency by over 40%, and achieving operating speeds of over 10Gbps (10 gigabits per second).

Previously, on August 13, Micron publicly challenged Samsung Electronics’ HBM4. At the “Technology Leadership Forum,” Micron’s Chief Business Officer, Sumit Sadana, questioned the performance of Samsung Electronics’ HBM4, which is manufactured using the sixth-generation 10nm-class “1c DRAM process,” during the announcement of the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter outlook. Sadana pointed out, “One competitor (Samsung Electronics) is attempting to produce HBM4 using the 1c node, which will require additional work to validate the new technology.” Both companies have produced HBM4 samples, but their DRAM processes differ. Micron uses its proprietary 1β (one-beta) process node for production. The 1β process refers to Micron’s fifth-generation 10nm-class DRAM, commonly known as the 1b process in the semiconductor industry. Samsung Electronics’ 1c process is a generation ahead and represents the most advanced technology.

The battle to dominate the “unclaimed territory” is expected to intensify after Micron announces its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter (June-August) results on September 24. There is speculation that Micron’s management will address the status of HBM4 during the earnings call, including updates on negotiations with Nvidia and insights on competitors. Recently, it was reported that Nvidia requested all three memory manufacturers to increase HBM4’s data processing speed from the existing 9Gbps to 10Gbps, drawing attention to how Micron will respond. Unlike its competitors, Micron is expected to continue using its proprietary 1β process for HBM4 mass production, rather than adopting conventional methods. Whether Micron can meet Nvidia’s requirements with this process is seen as a critical factor for the company’s future, and there is speculation that Micron will address this issue during the earnings announcement.

On Wall Street, analysts expect Micron to report earnings that significantly exceed forecasts. Reports have already predicted that Micron will secure a strong position in next year’s AI memory market, including HBM4. Christopher Danely, an analyst at Citigroup, has notably influenced market sentiment by raising Micron’s target price from $150 to $175, stating, “Demand for Micron’s semiconductors is outpacing supply.” He added, “If Micron announces positive results and guidance that have not yet been reflected in the stock price, there is further upside potential,” suggesting the possibility of a surprise announcement alongside the earnings report.

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