[Global Focus] U.S.-Russia Summit Ends Without Ceasefire Pledge... Territorial Disputes Remain a Stumbling Block

원본보기 아이콘

"Putin gained the most."

After the meeting between the two strongmen in Anchorage, Alaska, on the 15th (local time) ended without a concrete 'ceasefire' agreement, foreign media offered this analysis. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president who had been isolated in the international community, walked on the red carpet rolled out by U.S. President Donald Trump and enjoyed top-level protocol. In addition, he succeeded in diverting President Trump's attention from an immediate 'end to the war' to a 'comprehensive peace negotiation.' In front of President Trump, who suggested that Russia would restrain its attacks in exchange for Ukraine ceding part of its territory, what choice will President Volodymyr Zelensky make? The relationship between the leaders of these two great powers is also expected to be redefined depending on the outcome of the peace negotiations.

Last week, President Trump welcomed President Putin, who visited the U.S. for the first time in ten years for the U.S.-Russia summit, with applause. The two exchanged smiles and light pats on the shoulder, presenting a friendly scene on the red carpet. According to U.S. weekly Newsweek, body language expert Patti Ann Wood analyzed that President Trump appeared submissive when shaking hands with President Putin. She noted that, unlike his usual style of pulling the other person's hand palm-down, he did not do so this time.

This stands in stark contrast to the public humiliation President Trump and his aides inflicted on President Zelensky at the White House in February. They criticized President Zelensky's attire and made remarks such as "rude" and "be grateful" in front of cameras broadcasting live to the world.

The U.S. hospitality toward Russia has enraged Ukrainians. Ukrainian journalist Anna Murlykina vented her anger on her social media, saying, "American soldiers are rolling out the red carpet for murderers, child kidnappers, terrorists, and Nazis determined to destroy Ukraine." She added, "I hope Americans realize the gravity of this disgrace. No negotiation can justify such an insult."

President Trump's choice of address also drew attention. While President Trump called President Putin by his first name, "Vladimir," in a friendly manner, President Putin maintained a formal tone and appeared to keep his distance. The New York Times (NYT) commented, "It seemed as if the day was about returning to a long-standing respect for 'Vladimir,'" adding, "Conversely, Putin did not officially use the term 'Donald.'" In other words, he maintained a certain distance instead of using familiar expressions.

원본보기 아이콘

The bigger issue than the formalities was the absence of a ceasefire agreement. After nearly three hours of summit talks, President Trump even skipped his customary press conference. President Putin only read his prepared remarks, and he spoke before President Trump. At the press conference, President Trump said, "The Russian leader wants to save thousands of lives," but in reality, President Putin returned to Russia without agreeing to a ceasefire.

President Putin did not forget to praise President Trump personally. He agreed with Trump's statement, "'If I had been president, there would have been no war in Ukraine.'" He also emphasized a new start in U.S.-Russia relations and the possibility of expanding bilateral trade. However, regarding the core issue of the Russia-Ukraine war, he repeated his longstanding position that the fundamental cause of the conflict must be eliminated and that Ukraine bears full responsibility.

The 'fundamental cause' Russia claims is a classic example of its own narrative. Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center analyzed, "Putin succeeded in convincing Trump that an immediate ceasefire is impossible," and "he linked this to Russia's logic of 'resolving the fundamental cause of the war,' which includes Ukraine's demilitarization, changes to its political system, and a restructuring of the European security order."

Europe and Ukraine were taken aback when President Trump, who had previously threatened to strengthen sanctions against Russia if it did not agree to an immediate ceasefire, made a complete turnaround after the meeting with President Putin. President Trump had initially set the 8th as the deadline for sanctions against Russia in relation to the Ukraine ceasefire. He even imposed a drastic measure by raising tariffs on Indian imports of Russian crude oil from the previous 25% to 50% for violating this deadline.

According to the Washington Post (WP), President Putin reportedly offered President Trump the entire Donbas region in eastern Ukraine as a condition for a peace agreement. At the same time, President Putin is said to have maintained his position that he would not cede any territory in return. The region is a key strategic point for Ukraine's defense, serving as a "breakwater" to prevent Russia from advancing westward. President Trump conveyed these terms to President Zelensky and European leaders.

The ball is now in the court of the warring parties. President Trump announced that Russia had, for the first time, agreed to allow the U.S. and European countries to provide Ukraine with NATO-style collective security guarantees. This means the U.S. would participate as a security guarantor. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and other European leaders expressed great appreciation and praised President Trump. However, President Trump maintained that in exchange for security guarantees, a potential territorial exchange-meaning Ukraine ceding part of its territory-would be necessary. In effect, he accepted Russia's position. President Zelensky intends to negotiate the territorial issue directly with Russia. President Putin also stated he would agree to a one-on-one meeting with President Zelensky within two weeks.

The key point to watch going forward is the restoration of relations between the leaders of the two great powers. Their relationship has repeatedly swung from being so close as to be called a "bromance" to immediate conflict. President Trump praised President Putin as a "genius" immediately after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but as the war dragged on, his attitude became more critical. Recently, as Russia's offensive intensified and mediation proposals were rejected, he even told reporters after a phone call that it was "nonsense," expressing strong dissatisfaction.

Nevertheless, it was President Trump who led this summit. He regarded President Putin as a partner for "cooperation." Commenting on this, Professor Stacie Goddard of Wellesley College wrote in a recent Foreign Affairs article, "Trump's worldview is not about competition but collusion, resembling the 'concert' system of 19th-century Europe." What President Trump truly desires is an order in which powerful leaders like himself jointly manage the world. In reality, he accepted Russia's acquisition of Ukrainian territory as the price for ending the war. In this process, the voices of weaker countries like Ukraine are considered less important.

However, some point out that the cooperative system President Trump envisions is inherently limited. Just as the Yalta Conference, where the great powers divided the world after the end of World War II in 1945, led to the Cold War. Professor Goddard remarked, "The cooperation Trump believes in is not 'collaboration' but 'collusion.' Putin and Xi Jinping are not better partners. As history shows, the concert system ultimately collapsed into competition and conflict. And the world was once again engulfed in flames."

© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.