U.S. Hints at Second Strike... War Escalation Depends on Iran's Retaliation Level
by Kwon Haeyoung
Published 23 Jun.2025 11:07(KST)
Updated 23 Jun.2025 14:09(KST)
If Retaliation Is Restrained, Conflict Remains Limited
Full-Scale War Possible If U.S. Bases Are Targeted
U.S. Economy Also at Risk If War Escalates
The United States directly entered the Israel-Iran war by launching a surprise airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities on the night of the 21st (local time). President Donald Trump, immediately after the attack, hinted at the possibility of further military action, stating, "If Iran does not choose peace, there will be stronger and swifter attacks." Within a day of the airstrike, he even raised the possibility of regime change in Iran, escalating tensions further. In response, Iran immediately threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the Middle East into a state of imminent crisis.
The international community is now closely watching how Iran will respond. If Iran chooses a restrained retaliation that does not cross the U.S. red line, the conflict could remain limited. However, there are concerns that if Iran launches direct military attacks targeting U.S. bases in the Middle East or Israel, the United States could carry out a second airstrike, potentially leading to a full-scale war.
The Middle East at a Crossroads: U.S. Second Airstrike Hinges on Iran's Retaliation
After the United States carried out the "Midnight Hammer" operation on the 21st, striking three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, the international community has been focused on the level of Iran's retaliatory response. Iran has strongly condemned the attack and vowed retaliation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared, "All options are on the table," and within a day of the U.S. attack, the Iranian parliament passed a resolution to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Middle Eastern oil exports. Esmaeil Kowsari, Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, indicated the possibility of closing the strait, stating, "The final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC)."
Most analysts agree that the possibility of further escalation depends on Iran's response. If Iran opts for calculated measures?such as partial control of the Strait of Hormuz or indirect attacks using armed groups?without crossing the U.S. red line, the United States may also limit its military response. However, there are concerns that if Iranian hardliners prevail and directly target U.S. bases in the Middle East or launch a full-scale missile attack on Israel, a second U.S. airstrike could become a reality, leading to all-out war. Furthermore, if Iran moves to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping lane in the Middle East, tensions in the international community are expected to rise to extreme levels. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of the world's daily oil supply, and if it is closed, global oil prices are expected to skyrocket, dramatically increasing economic uncertainty worldwide.
President Trump has already warned that further attacks will be inevitable if Iran continues its provocations. Immediately after the airstrike, he stated, "If Iran does not stop its provocations, the next attack will be much faster and stronger," signaling a possible second airstrike. On the 22nd, just one day later, he further increased pressure on Iran by mentioning the possibility of regime change. President Trump said, "It may not be politically correct to use the term 'regime change,' but if the current Iranian regime cannot make Iran great again, why shouldn't there be regime change?"
Israel is also maintaining a hardline stance, making the possibility of escalation impossible to rule out. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, "We will not stop this historic operation until our objectives are achieved," signaling his willingness to engage in a full-scale war. He added, "We will not be dragged into a war of attrition," and claimed, "We have inflicted very serious damage on Iran's nuclear facilities," indicating his intention to continue military pressure.
"Not Aiming for Regime Change"... U.S. Sends Message of Negotiation Amid Pressure to Prevent Escalation
The United States is employing a dual strategy of military pressure to halt Iran's nuclear development and restrain retaliation, while also leaving the door open for diplomatic solutions. Although President Trump has mentioned regime change, U.S. officials have repeatedly left room for negotiations, seeking to strike a balance. Since a full-scale war would inevitably damage both President Trump’s political standing and the U.S. economy, the administration is also pushing for negotiations through unofficial channels.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated at a briefing this morning, "Iran's nuclear ambitions have been crushed," and "its uranium enrichment capabilities have been destroyed." He added, "This airstrike is unrelated to regime change, and we are delivering both official and unofficial messages to Iran through various channels," emphasizing, "We are giving Iran every opportunity to come to the negotiating table."
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also reiterated that regime change is not the objective, stating, "What we want is to ensure that Iran never possesses nuclear weapons." U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance similarly said, "The United States is not at war with Iran, but fighting against Iran's nuclear program," stressing that the U.S. does not seek to deploy ground troops or pursue regime change, but rather desires peace with a nuclear-free Iran.
Both officials also warned that any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz would be "an act of suicide" for Iran, and Secretary Rubio urged China to intervene diplomatically to prevent the closure of the strait.
Trump Faces Political Test... U.S. Public Opinion Also a Variable
This crisis is also becoming a major political test for President Trump, who has previously advocated "America First" and refrained from foreign intervention. If Iran responds forcefully and the situation drags on, President Trump could find himself trapped in a "quagmire of war," unable to either continue a full-scale conflict or retreat.
There are already signs of criticism within President Trump's core "MAGA" base. Steve Bannon, former White House chief strategist during Trump's first administration, criticized the decision, saying, "The vast majority of Americans do not want to be involved in all of this."
In particular, if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge and financial markets to become highly volatile, public opinion in the United States could deteriorate rapidly, posing a significant burden for President Trump. Bloomberg Economics (BE), JP Morgan, and Oxford Economics have warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed and global oil supplies are disrupted, oil prices?which are currently in the mid-$70 per barrel?could soar to $130 per barrel, and the U.S. year-end inflation rate could reach 6%.
Aaron David Miller, a current fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former U.S. State Department Middle East negotiator, said, "If Iran retaliates, President Trump has considerable political capacity to sustain the war, but if the conflict expands or an energy crisis develops, it will be difficult to endure for long." He added, "How public opinion will react if Americans are killed and oil prices exceed $100 per barrel is another matter entirely."
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