[Interview] "The 46 Series Is the Key Battleground for K-Batteries... Half-Price Batteries Possible," Says Anna Lee, Deputy Head at Yuanta Securities

Anna Lee, Deputy Head of Yuanta Securities, is being interviewed by Asia Economy at the Yeouido office in Seoul. Photo by Jo Yongjun

원본보기 아이콘

"In order to overcome the electric vehicle chasm, prices must come down sufficiently even for long-range trim models, and the 46 series could play that role."

On May 30, at the Anchor One Building office in Yeouido, Anna Lee, Research Fellow (Deputy Head) at Yuanta Securities Research Center, identified the 46 series as the key battleground for domestic battery companies. Lee stated, "If a battery as affordable as lithium iron phosphate (LFP), but with higher safety and energy density, becomes available, automakers will accelerate the launch of electric vehicles," and added, "If dry electrode technology is applied to both the cathode and anode, the price of the 46 series can be halved."

The 46 series refers to cylindrical batteries with a diameter of 46mm. Depending on the height, there are models such as the 4680 (80mm high) and 4695 (95mm high). Dry electrode technology refers to a process that does not use electrolyte in electrode production. Compared to conventional wet electrodes, this process is simpler, uses less electricity, and reduces production costs, but it is technically challenging. Currently, only 46 series batteries with dry electrodes applied to the anode have been commercialized.

Regarding this, Lee expressed an optimistic outlook for companies producing carbon nanotube (CNT) conductive materials that can be used in dry electrodes. She also had a positive view of companies developing silicon anode materials that improve the energy density of LFP and NCM batteries.

On all-solid-state batteries, she commented, "They will be suitable for certain markets such as robotics and aerospace," and added, "To expand their use for electric vehicles, prices must drop dramatically." Regarding Korean companies developing sodium-ion battery technology, she was negative, saying, "It will be difficult to win the price competition with China."

Lee predicted that battery companies' operating rates will rise and their performance will improve starting from the third quarter of this year. According to automotive market research firm MarkLines, the number of new electric vehicle models scheduled for release outside China in 2026 is projected to be 93, up 22% from the 2025 estimate of 76. Although this is fewer than the 101 new models released in 2024, it is expected to be a welcome relief for domestic battery companies.

However, the extent of this benefit is expected to vary among battery companies. Lee advised, "From this year through next year, the market share of domestic secondary battery companies will become more polarized," and added, "It is important to monitor and frequently update which companies are adding more customers." In other words, some companies will expand their market share, while others may not.

The company Lee is paying the most attention to is LG Energy Solution. She said, "LG Energy Solution's customer base is becoming more diverse," and predicted, "Among the new electric vehicle models launching next year, many will be equipped with LG Energy Solution batteries."

Tesla is expected to launch the Model Q (or Model 2) in the second half of this year or the first half of next year, and there is speculation that LG Energy Solution batteries may be used. LG Energy Solution has also agreed to supply next-generation 4695 cylindrical batteries to Rivian from 2026 to 2030. Rivian's R2 electric vehicle, set to launch next year, is expected to be equipped with LG Energy Solution's 46 series batteries. The company’s plant in Wroclaw, Poland, is also expected to improve its operating rate by converting part of its production line to energy storage systems (ESS).

Lee advised that, going forward, the three major battery companies should each pursue different strategies. Rather than simply competing for market share, each company should leverage its strengths and clearly define its target markets.

Lee said, "LG Energy Solution should continue to expand its market share through a diverse product lineup, while also researching ways to reduce costs." She added, "Samsung SDI should strengthen its position by focusing on premium products based on its advanced technology, and SK On should concentrate its lineup around core customers such as Hyundai Motor and Kia."

© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.