[Bloomberg Column] Asia Contemplates a Nuclear-Armed Future

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A new arms race is beginning, and it is leading us down a dangerous path.

Eighty years ago, in August, the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, taking tens of thousands of lives. While this event contributed to ending World War II, it also marked the dawn of the nuclear age.

As of 2025, a new nuclear arms race is intensifying. This time, it is not primarily due to established nuclear powers like Russia, China, or North Korea. Instead, the main causes are President Donald Trump's trade wars and his threats to withdraw the U.S. defense umbrella. As a result, the world is becoming more dangerous not only for Asia but also for the United States itself.

The existing security architecture that has restrained the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is now at risk of collapsing. For decades, Asian countries have relied on Washington's promise of nuclear deterrence. However, this can no longer be taken for granted.

Countries that have long been U.S. allies, such as Japan and South Korea, are now calculating the economic and political costs that would arise if they pursue their own nuclear armament. India and Pakistan have already been expanding their nuclear arsenals, and the recent escalation of tensions in the Kashmir region makes the possibility of unstable conflict even more likely.

President Trump argues that the United States is at a disadvantage in defense agreements, and that while the world becomes safer under American protection, other economic blocs benefit more. While this point has some merit, he overlooks the lessons of history.

After Washington dropped the atomic bombs, American society underwent deep reflection, leading to a widespread consensus that such a tragedy must be avoided at any cost. As a result of this reflection, every U.S. president since Harry Truman has made it a top priority not to promote, but to limit, the proliferation of nuclear weapons. This objective has largely been achieved through negotiations, agreements, and treaties.

The policy has been effective. Today, only nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Many nations have the capability to develop them, but further proliferation has been successfully prevented. However, President Trump is opening the door to a more dangerous era. During the 2016 presidential election, he stated that it might be necessary for Japan and South Korea to acquire their own nuclear capabilities, and such remarks have influenced public opinion. According to a 2024 survey by the Korea Institute for National Unification, six out of ten South Koreans support nuclear armament.

If Seoul moves to develop its own nuclear weapons, a chain reaction could occur, according to professors Jamie Levin and Cho Youngwon of St. Francis Xavier University. Although public opinion in Japan is negative toward nuclear weapons due to historical trauma, experts estimate that Japan, with its complete nuclear fuel cycle, could theoretically produce thousands of nuclear warheads within six months.

India and Pakistan are among the most concerning countries. A recent terrorist attack in Kashmir resulted in dozens of deaths, marking the worst violence in years and increasing the risk of conflict between the two nations. So far, both sides have limited their responses to diplomatic measures, but the potential for escalation remains ever-present.

Even in Southeast Asia, which was relatively safe, the risks are now clearly increasing. The 1995 Bangkok Treaty established Southeast Asia as a nuclear-weapon-free zone, prohibiting member states from developing, manufacturing, acquiring, or possessing nuclear weapons. However, if major powers increase their nuclear arsenals, the ripple effects on Southeast Asia may force other countries to consider developing their own nuclear technology or seeking new security umbrellas. In particular, China is likely to actively fill the leadership vacuum created by the unpredictability of the United States.

Instead of failing to guarantee reliable security, the United States must actively cooperate with Asian countries and address their defense ambitions. During the Biden administration, the launch of the Nuclear Consultative Group with South Korea in 2023 helped to some extent in alleviating anxieties. Such efforts should be expanded to other allies, such as Japan.

The United States must persuade its allies to follow its deterrence strategy. Small nations pay attention not to the words but to the actions of great powers. The United States still has the opportunity to play the role of global stabilizer and must not cede that role to China.

There was a time when the world regarded the United States as the guardian of security. However, as of 2025, that trust is wavering. Restoring it is an urgent task not only for Asia but also for the interests of the United States itself.

Karishma Baswani Bloomberg columnist and former BBC Asia chief anchor

This article is a translation by Asia Economy of the Bloomberg column "Asia Is Contemplating a Growing Nuclear Future."

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