[MarketING] Kospi Pauses Ahead of 2700 Level... Focus on Nvidia Earnings

The KOSPI, which had risen for seven consecutive trading days and was approaching the 2700 level, appears to be taking a brief breather. Attention is focused on whether the upward trend can resume this week (February 24?28) and break through the 2700 mark. In particular, the market is expected to pay close attention to NVIDIA's earnings announcement scheduled for the 27th.

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Last week, the KOSPI rose by 2.45%, and the KOSDAQ increased by 2.42%. The KOSPI climbed continuously for seven trading days from the 11th to the 19th, reaching the 2670 level. Since then, it has taken a short pause and retreated to the 2650 level. Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, explained, "The KOSPI quickly recovered to the 2650 level as concerns over tariffs and inflation eased, and previous expectations turned optimistic. With a favorable investment environment outside the U.S. stock market, the valuation appeal of the KOSPI was reassessed, leading to a strong rise."

The strength in semiconductors led the KOSPI to surpass the 2600 level. Samsung Electronics recovered to the 58,000 KRW level for the first time since November last year. Na Jung-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "The rise in semiconductor sector stock prices sustained the upward trend in the domestic stock market. The announcement of Samsung Electronics' shareholder return plan and expectations for semiconductor industry improvement in the second half of the year were reflected in stock prices, boosting semiconductor companies' shares. Although President Donald Trump announced that a 25% tariff would be imposed on semiconductors, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals on April 2, the possibility of negotiations was also indicated, limiting the impact on stock prices."

With semiconductors showing strength, NVIDIA's earnings announcement scheduled for the 27th is expected to influence the stock market. Researcher Na said, "Since sales of Blackwell artificial intelligence (AI) chips began to be reflected in earnings from the fourth quarter of last year, expectations for the strength of demand for the latest graphics processing units (GPUs) are expanding. Earnings exceeding expectations would be favorable for NVIDIA-related semiconductor stocks such as SK Hynix."

Although there will be some impact from tariffs, it is necessary to view this from a buying perspective. Researcher Na stated, "Details of the tariff-targeted items need to be disclosed, but there is certainly damage to sectors with large exports to the U.S., such as semiconductors and automobiles. However, stock prices have already factored in concerns about Trump's tariffs since 2024, so a sharp plunge like in 2018 has not occurred. In the case of semiconductors, there are also positive factors such as large-scale AI investment projects, so it is necessary to view this from a buying perspective." NH Investment & Securities has set the expected KOSPI band for this week at 2550?2700.

As the KOSPI has continued its recent upward trend and entered a short-term overheated phase, it is expected to undergo a process of cooling down. Researcher Lee said, "The KOSPI has reached the first valuation normalization target of the 2650 level. However, having risen 150 points over seven trading days, it has entered a short-term overheated zone, and a process of cooling down and digesting selling pressure due to the rapid short-term rise is expected." He added, "It is likely that support tests will occur around the 2600 level, and if a technical correction emerges, it will be an opportunity to increase holdings."

Key events this week include the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on the 25th, the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for February on the 26th, U.S. January Durable Goods Orders on the 27th, and the U.S. January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on the 28th.

Researcher Lee noted, "Although a rate cut is expected at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on the 25th, it could serve as a trigger for a short-term correction. If signals for a rate cut are strengthened at the February meeting, volatility in the Korean won is expected to increase, and if interpreted as a hawkish rate cut, expectations for rate cuts may retreat. It is important to note that the U.S. PCE Price Index could be a variable for short-term fluctuations depending on the gap between actual figures and consensus (average securities firm forecasts)."

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