[Political Spotlight] Voices for 'Regime Extension' Emerge... But Centrist Voters Overwhelmingly Support 'Regime Change'

As the impeachment trial of President Yoon Suk-yeol is underway at the Constitutional Court, a public opinion poll showed that the opposition party's call for regime change leads the ruling party's call for regime continuation by 6 to 11 percentage points. However, among the moderate voters who decide election outcomes, the call for regime change was found to be significantly ahead.

Looking at the results of the public opinion poll conducted by the three major terrestrial broadcasters on the 31st, coinciding with the Lunar New Year holiday, the trend shows that public opinion favoring regime change slightly surpasses that favoring regime continuation. It is also noteworthy that consolidation of support, mainly among conservative groups, is still being detected.

In fact, examining the respondents' political leanings in the three broadcasters' polls, those identifying as conservative accounted for 30.8% to 35.3%. In contrast, progressive respondents accounted for only 22.9% to 26.8%. For reference, according to the Korea Gallup, which conducted regular public opinion polls throughout last year (with 37,047 respondents), the proportion of conservative respondents was 29.9%, centrists 30.9%, and progressives 27.6%.

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This indicates that the active response trend among conservative respondents, which had continued before the Lunar New Year holiday, is still ongoing. Kim Bong-shin, Vice President of Metavoice, analyzed, "It is true that recently conservative respondents have been responding more actively," adding, "If the number of conservative voters has not increased, we need to see whether this trend actually translates into votes."

Kim also stated, "Some automated response system (ARS) polls show higher support rates for the People Power Party, but telephone interview surveys maintain a trend where the call for regime change holds the advantage," and diagnosed, "It is difficult to say that the ruling party candidate is dominant in the presidential election."

In fact, if the impeachment is accepted and an early presidential election unfolds, the opposition still leads among the moderate voters, who are the decisive battleground. Among moderate voters, the call for regime change shows a rate of 55% to 59%, which is more than 20 percentage points higher than the call for regime continuation.

Kim Moon-soo, Minister of Employment and Labor, and Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, emerged as the top candidates for the next presidential election from the ruling and opposition parties, respectively. It is also notable that Minister Kim, who began to appear in polls before the Lunar New Year, is establishing himself as a major presidential contender for the ruling party. On the opposition side, Lee's solo dominance continues. However, voices cautioning against a one-person dominance system within the party remain a variable factor.

Lee Sang-il, former CEO of Case Stat Consulting, said on MBC Radio, "There is a rapidly rising trend among hardline conservatives who are paying attention to Minister Kim and evaluating him as an alternative," and assessed, "(Minister Kim) has the strength to become the presidential candidate of the conservative party." Regarding Lee's support rate remaining in a box range despite the impeachment situation, he explained, "There is a sense of rejection toward leading the impeachment situation and concerns about judicial risks."

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