The Real Reason Party Approval Ratings Reversed During the Impeachment Crisis [AK Radio]

In the National Barometer Survey (NBS) released on the 16th, the People Power Party's approval rating was shown to have surpassed that of the Democratic Party of Korea within the margin of error. This is the first time since October last year that such a shift has occurred, with the ruling party's approval rating turning upward even during the martial law declaration and impeachment phases.

In this joint survey conducted by four polling agencies?Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Hankook Research, and Korea Research?the People Power Party recorded a 35% approval rating, while the Democratic Party of Korea had 33%. The Innovation Party received 8%, the Reform Party 3%, and the Progressive Party 1%. The gap between the two major parties, which had widened up to 13 percentage points following the martial law declaration on December 3, reversed in just over a month. The survey was conducted via telephone interviews with 1,005 men and women nationwide from the 13th to the 15th. The response rate was 19.6%, with a 95% confidence level and a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points.

NBS's Political Party Support Survey Results

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Similar results were found in the Gallup Korea survey released on the 17th. Gallup Korea surveyed 1,001 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide from the 14th to the 16th (with a 95% confidence level and a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points). The party approval ratings for the third week of January showed the People Power Party at 39% and the Democratic Party of Korea at 36%. The survey was conducted through telephone interviews using randomly selected wireless phone virtual numbers. The response rate was 16.3%, with a 95% confidence level and a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points.

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Notably, there has been a shift among the 2030 generation. In the NBS survey, the Democratic Party's approval rating among those in their 20s dropped by 6 percentage points over one month, while the People Power Party's rating rose by 3 percentage points. Among those in their 30s, the Democratic Party's rating fell by 6 percentage points, whereas the People Power Party's rating increased by 8 percentage points.

Five main factors have been identified as causes for this reversal in approval ratings. First, the over-sampling of conservative-leaning respondents. In this NBS survey, 344 respondents identified as conservative, while 257 identified as progressive, confirming active participation from the conservative base in the polling. Second, the possibility of an early presidential election following President Yoon Seok-yeol's impeachment increased, triggering a defensive sentiment against the leading candidate, Representative Lee Jae-myung. This indicates that a strong 'anti' movement against Lee remains.

Third, the National Assembly's impeachment prosecution team’s decision to exclude the charge of rebellion had an impact. Although this was a strategic judgment by the opposition party to expedite the impeachment trial, it backfired somewhat as it exposed the process to a 'fraudulent impeachment' frame. Fourth, the initial lead of the People Power Party in early polls may have triggered the so-called 'bandwagon effect.'

Lastly, the 'KakaoTalk censorship controversy' is analyzed to have had a particularly negative effect on the 2030 generation. The controversy expanded following remarks by Democratic Party lawmaker Jeon Yong-gi, provoking backlash among younger voters.

Meanwhile, in the NBS survey on suitability for presidential candidates, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung ranked first with 28%, followed by Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo at 13%. Next were Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo at 8%, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 6%, former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon at 5%, and National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik at 3%. In the Gallup Korea survey, the order was Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung (31%), Minister Kim Moon-soo (7%), Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo (6%), former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon (6%), Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon (4%), Reform Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok (2%), former Innovation Party leader Cho Kuk (1%), and Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon (1%).

Korea Gallup Survey Results

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Minister Kim Moon-soo's rise is particularly noteworthy. Classified as a hardline conservative, Minister Kim has gained support from the conservative base by refusing to apologize in the National Assembly and showing a tough stance. However, experts analyze that his high approval rating may be a temporary phenomenon and that there are limitations regarding his appeal to moderate voters.

If an early presidential election materializes, the possibility of unification within the ruling party and whether Representative Lee Jae-myung can overcome judicial risks will become key variables. Selecting a candidate with broad appeal is expected to become a major challenge for both sides.

For detailed information related to the polls, please visit the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

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