Average Household Size in All Cities and Provinces Falls to 1-Person Range by 2052

By 2052, the number of households in all provinces and cities nationwide, except for Sejong, is expected to peak and then decline. The average household size across all provinces and cities is projected to decrease to the 1-person range, making single-person households the most prevalent. The proportion of households with elderly members aged 65 and over in 11 major provinces and cities, including Gyeongbuk and Jeonnam, may exceed 50%.

View of apartment buildings in downtown Seoul from Inwangsan Mountain. Unrelated to the article content. Photo by Yonhap News.

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On the 12th, Statistics Korea released the 'Household Projection (by Province): 2022~2052' containing these findings. The household projection is prepared every five years, and this data reflects future population projections and census results as of 2022, as well as recent trends in population dynamics such as marriage and divorce, to forecast future household size, types, and structure.

By 2052, compared to 2022, the number of households in 10 provinces and cities, excluding Seoul, Busan, and Daegu, will increase. In 2022, the population was highest in Gyeonggi (5.37 million households), Seoul (4.08 million households), and Busan (1.44 million households), but by 2052, it is expected to change to Gyeonggi (6.53 million households), Seoul (3.97 million households), and Incheon (1.45 million households).

However, Busan and Daegu will begin to see household decreases in 2032, and Ulsan in 2034. By 2052, all provinces and cities except Sejong are expected to have peaked in household numbers and then declined. Seoul is projected to peak in 2038 at 4.276 million households and then decrease to 3.968 million households by 2052. Gyeonggi is expected to start declining after 2044 (6.68 million households), reaching 6.535 million households in 2052. Sejong is projected to increase from 151,000 households in 2022 to 269,000 households in 2052.

The average household size by province and city was highest at 2.41 persons (Sejong and Gyeonggi) and lowest at 2.11 persons (Gyeongbuk) in 2022, but by 2052, it is expected to decrease to between 1.93 persons (Sejong) and 1.65 persons (Gyeongbuk and Chungnam). All provinces and cities nationwide will have an average household size below 2 persons.

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Looking at household types, as of 2022, 14 provinces and cities including Daejeon and Seoul had the highest proportion of single-person households, while Sejong, Ulsan, and Gyeonggi had the highest proportion of couple + children households. By 2052, single-person households are expected to be the predominant household type in all provinces and cities. In particular, in 12 provinces and cities such as Gangwon and Chungbuk, the proportion of single-person households may exceed 40%.

By 2052, the proportion of couple households is expected to exceed 20% in all provinces and cities. Conversely, the proportion of couple + children households is expected to fall below 20% in all provinces and cities except Sejong (28.3%) and Gyeonggi (20.4%). In 2022, Sejong (34.3%) and Ulsan (32.8%) had the highest proportions of couple + children households.

The proportion of households with elderly members aged 65 and over may exceed 50% in 11 provinces and cities including Gyeongbuk (60.2%), Jeonnam (60.1%), and Gyeongnam (59.3%). The proportion of elderly single-person households is also expected to exceed 20% in 12 provinces and cities such as Gangwon (27.1%), Jeonnam (26.8%), and Gyeongbuk (25.8%).

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