China Travel Boom Still Missing... 15% Drop in Tourists Despite Visa-Free Entry

Since the Chinese government allowed visa-free entry, the number of travelers has actually decreased. Analysts attribute this largely to the clear preference for Southeast Asia over China during the winter season. As airlines actively announce plans to increase flights to China and launch promotional activities, there are forecasts that demand for travel to China will recover around next spring.

According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's Aviation Information Portal System on the 12th, the number of passengers on China routes last month was 1,065,281, a 15.3% decrease compared to the previous month. During the same period, passengers on Japan routes decreased by only 0.3%. This contrasts with the heightened expectations following the Chinese government's temporary visa-free entry allowance for South Korea from early last month until the end of next year.

This phenomenon appears to be largely seasonal. Overall travel demand decreases in winter, and there is a marked tendency to prefer warmer regions. The number of passengers on Asian routes such as Thailand and Vietnam totaled 2,972,503, an increase of 2.1% compared to the previous month.

Additionally, unexpected heavy snowfall last month and fewer business days compared to the previous month also contributed to the reduction in total flight operations. The total number of international flights last month was 42,738, down by 2,504 flights from the previous month. Furthermore, anti-China sentiment influenced by laws such as the Anti-Espionage Act also had an impact. A representative from a low-cost carrier (LCC) said, "Although some routes are fully booked, overall demand for travel to China is still slow to recover."

However, airlines are preparing for next year by increasing China routes. Korean Air will start operating the Incheon?China Fuzhou route three times a week (Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday) from the 28th of this month, launching full-scale promotional activities along with route expansion. An airline official explained, "November was too soon for the visa-free effect to appear immediately," adding, "The effect of reduced visa issuance costs is expected to fully manifest around April next year, coinciding with the seasonal peak."

The long-term growth potential of China routes is expected to be considerable. This is because there has already been experience of achieving record-high passenger numbers. With the rise of K-content and increased demand for travel to Korea after COVID-19, it is analyzed that past levels of demand can be sufficiently reproduced. Previously, the number of passengers traveling to and from China reached a record high of 19.86 million in 2016, ranking first by a wide margin among single countries. This was over 4 million more than second-ranked Japan. Even in 2019, just before COVID-19, the number was 18.43 million, but it sharply declined to about 420,000 in 2021 due to the pandemic.

Yonhap News

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