"Yoon, Possibility of Preemptive Strike on North Korea for Self-Defense" US Academic Analysis

Amid President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of 'martial law' on the 3rd and its lifting six hours later, an analysis from the United States suggested that he might choose war with North Korea to maintain power.

President Yoon Suk-yeol Yonhap News

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Professor Choi Seung-hwan, a Korean-American who teaches Korean politics and international relations at Illinois State University, made this claim in an op-ed titled "Trump and Biden Should Persuade the South Korean President to Resign" published on the 6th (local time) in the U.S. political media outlet The Hill. He stated, "The Constitutional Court (ConCourt) must rule within 180 days once it accepts an impeachment case, but currently, due to a shortage of personnel, only 6 out of 9 judges remain in place," adding, "The minimum number of votes needed for an impeachment ruling is 7. President Yoon believes he can avoid impeachment by exploiting the personnel shortage."

Professor Choi said, "While the ConCourt is unable to make a ruling, President Yoon is highly likely to do whatever it takes to maintain power," explaining, "He knows that if he steps down from the presidency, not only he but also his wife, who is embroiled in scandals, could end up in prison." He then referenced President John F. Kennedy during the Bay of Pigs invasion, suggesting that President Yoon might also order an attack on Pyongyang to defend himself.

"President Yoon might stage a North Korean drone incident by flying a drone disguised as one from North Korea into the Seoul Air Defense Identification Zone and order a preemptive strike, claiming 'Seoul is in danger,'" he said, adding, "This scenario is not unimaginable since the president has advocated for preemptive strikes against North Korea and taken a hardline stance since his inauguration." He also reminded that North Korea has never carried out any major military provocations during South Korea's previous martial law periods.

Opposition party members from the Democratic Party of Korea and the Joguk Innovation Party, along with citizens, are shouting slogans at the "Emergency National Rally to Urge President Yoon Seok-yeol's Resignation and Impeachment Promotion" held on the steps in front of the National Assembly main building on the 4th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

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He argued that cooperation between President Biden and former President Trump is necessary to calm President Yoon. Citing the example of when Syngman Rhee caused considerable turmoil, Dwight D. Eisenhower secretly ordered the CIA to support Rhee's departure from South Korea and allowed him to live in exile in Honolulu until his death, he claimed that Yoon's exile "must happen before it causes irreversible conflict on the Korean Peninsula, where the security interests of the four major powers?the United States, China, Russia, and Japan?clash."

He also said, "Working with President Yoon will be a challenge for both Biden and Trump," explaining, "This is because President Yoon is not yet ready to accept that he is the most unpopular president in South Korean history and has no way to avoid potential imprisonment even if he steps down."

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