Samil PwC 2025 Economic Outlook "Peak Uncertainty, Era of Every Man for Himself"

Samil PwC Management Research Institute announced the '2025 Economic Outlook' report on the 3rd. It forecasted that the global and Korean economies will face high uncertainty amid a rapidly changing environment next year.

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The report identified the main keywords for next year's economy as 'peak uncertainty' and 'finding ways to survive on one's own.' It predicted that the global economy in 2025 will show a gradual recovery based on easing inflation pressures and interest rate cuts. The IMF projected the global economic growth rate next year to be 3.2%, the same as this year, but expected widening growth disparities among countries.

While the United States is expected to maintain steady growth, China, the European Union (EU), and Korea are analyzed to continue in a low-growth phase. Inflation is expected to stabilize downward, approaching the target rate (2%) of major countries, but returning to the pre-pandemic low inflation levels is considered difficult. The Trump administration's second term protectionist policies could re-highlight global supply chain risks and reignite inflation issues.

The Korean economy is expected to record a growth rate in the high 1% range amid worsening external conditions and sluggish domestic demand recovery. Consumption and facility investment will recover moderately, but the slowdown in export growth and negative growth in construction investment are expected to limit economic improvement.

Additionally, the report assessed that external factors such as the U.S. tariff policy strengthening, U.S.-China conflicts, and geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula will adversely affect the Korean economy, advising the establishment of domestic and international strategies to adapt to the new global economic order.

Director Choi Jaeyoung emphasized, “Next year, the recovery of domestic demand to compensate for the slowed export growth is crucial for the Korean economy, and a combination of fiscal and monetary policies to support this is more necessary than ever.” He also added, “In the rapidly changing global economic 'game rules,' efforts to find new 'windows of opportunity' are important.”

Detailed information on the '2025 Economic Outlook' can be found on the official website of Samil PwC Management Research Institute.

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